Morning Dose #229: Oil at $100, PCE Drop Day, and a Fragile Bounce — What Traders Need Now – Monday 3/16/2026

Episode summary

Oil tested $100 before pulling back to $93.96, leaving futures in a fragile green bounce while market internals remain deeply bearish—only 27% of stocks above their 40-day average. The January PCE print drops pre-market into this elevated environment, making it the single most important data point of the week. The team breaks down the energy rotation, ADBE’s CEO-driven dislocation, and a controlled-risk playbook built around the 200-day moving average as the line that separates pullback from something more serious.