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Overnight oil and yield spikes torch yesterday’s rally, and a one-day breadth collapse confirms a bearish regime call heading into the open. With the scan board nearly empty and money hiding in defensives, the playbook today is patience — wait for the 30-year auction and oil to stabilize before committing capital.
Chapter by chapter
Overnight Shock: Oil, Yields, Fed
Oil spikes on Strait of Hormuz tensions, yields hit fresh 2026 highs, and hawkish Fed minutes confirm a bearish regime call with gap-down futures.
The Flat-Close Mirage
A deceptively calm S&P close hides a brutal small-cap selloff, collapsing bullish breadth signals, and a rotation into defensive sectors.
Patience Over Positioning
With scans nearly empty, the plan is FHP and COUGAR action codes, a tells-based watchlist (PEP, AVGO, TSM), and scenario plans around the 30-year auction.
Key points
20-day breadth gauge collapsed from 35% to 18% in a single session, confirming a bearish regime shift
Oil's surge above $92 and 10-year/30-year yields at fresh 2026 highs are driving a gap-down open
Wednesday's flat S&P close masked a sharp small- and mid-cap selloff, with bullish breadth signals cratering from 104 to 10
Money rotated hard into defensives (Health Care, Staples) and out of cyclicals (Industrials, Materials, Real Estate)
With almost no fresh setups on the scan board, today's plan is patience: FHP and COUGAR, watch PEP/AVGO/TSM, and wait for the 1PM 30-year auction before engaging
See PEP in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open PEP in WaveFinder.
See AVGO in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open AVGO in WaveFinder.
See TSM in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open TSM in WaveFinder.
See META in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open META in WaveFinder.
See LLY in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open LLY in WaveFinder.
See MRNA in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MRNA in WaveFinder.