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The S&P hits a fresh record above 7,800, but the analyst flags a Cautious Bearish regime as only a quarter of stocks trade above their 40-day average. With yields at 2026 highs, oil spiking on Strait of Hormuz attacks, and a key Treasury auction plus FOMC Minutes on deck, the hosts break down why patience — not aggression — is today’s winning trade.
The S&P closes above 7,800 but the regime call stays Cautious Bearish amid weak breadth.
Only 25.81% of stocks are above their 40-day average, and the short-term gauge flips from 249 bulls to 209 bears in five days.
Futures deteriorate into the open as the 10-year hits a 2026 high and oil surges on Strait of Hormuz attacks, with global markets selling off.
A $39 billion 10-year auction at 1 and FOMC Minutes at 2 could reset the day's tone.
Falling yields, falling oil, and rising NVIDIA all reverse, with semiconductors leading premarket weakness.
Marvell's upgrade and Constellation Brands' earnings beat both get sold off, showing how high the market's bar has become.
Utilities and Consumer Discretionary outperform as the AI-power trade takes over, while Russell 2000 weakness confirms breadth concerns.
Despite the fear, 18 continuation signals fire, led by FN and FIX with strong relative volume.
The analyst lays out First Hour Pass and COUGAR patience codes, urging selective, high-quality setups only.
The hosts close with a scenario plan: let leaders prove themselves on a gap up, stand aside on a gap down until the auction and Minutes clarify direction.
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