Regime Check — Where Are We Now?
Regime is mixed with a bullish undertone: the 4% sentiment flipped hard to Bullish (Bull 4% 182 vs Bear 4% 49) even as the moving-average breadth cooled off.
- Breadth is contracting on the surface: % above 20 SMA dropped to 53% from 62% (-9.0pp) and % above 40 SMA slipped to 51.05% from 54.43% (-3.4pp) — participation is thinning.
- But the 4% signal snapped bullish: Bull 4% jumped to 182 while Bear 4% collapsed to 49 (from 133 bull / 232 bear yesterday) — a sharp intraday flip that says buyers stepped in.
- Character: looks like a rotational, split-tape day — leadership narrowing into a few strong sectors rather than a broad trend. Note SPY/QQQ/IWM index levels are data unavailable today, so lean on breadth and sector tape.
Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP
- Strongest continuation (2LYNCH): leveraged/thematic names lead — CRCG $16.81 (+12.0%) and CRCA $24.91 (+11.7%), though RVOL is muted (0.9 and 0.7). Cleaner momentum sits in mining: AEM $223.09 (+2.4%, INST) and AUGO $90.21 (+3.3%).
- Strongest reversal setup: BTI $56.42 on RVOL 2.1 and USLM $119.70 on RVOL 2.0 — both showing real volume conviction on the bullish reversal list; BMO $173.65 (INST) also on 1.9x volume.
- SIP leaders: the freshest SIP notes are dated 08-18 (stale) — HD better Q2 results/guidance and LOW $216.99 already reported and firmed; VEEV $248.56 carried a price-target raise. Treat these as context, not fresh catalysts.
- Most relevant action code — PLASTICS (Sector Winners): Communication Services RSPC 3.41, rising, 100th percentile and Health Care RSPH 3.33, rising, 89th percentile are the clear leaders; Energy RSPG faded to 2.34 (-0.74). Secondary code: CRT (Controlled Risk Taking) given contracting MA breadth.
Closing Playbook — What To Do Now
- Trim / tighten in the laggards: Industrials RSPN -1.19 (0th percentile, falling) and Utilities RSPU -1.86 (falling) are the weak sectors — close or tighten stops on names tied to these before the bell rather than hold into weakness.
- Enter on confirmation: if AEM $223.09 holds its intraday gains into the last hour, it’s a valid continuation entry (INST-backed, 10.3 ATR%); size small on the high-beta CRCG/CRCA moves — those are wide-risk (139-166%) and thin volume.
- Key level watch: with SPY/QQQ/IWM levels unavailable, use breadth as your gate — if % above 20 SMA stabilizes above 50% into the close, the bullish 4% flip is real and dips are buyable tomorrow; a break below 50% warns the -9pp slide is spreading.
Tomorrow’s Early Look
- Catalyst to watch: monitor the Comm Services and Health Care leaders for follow-through — RSPC at a 100th-percentile reading is stretched and vulnerable to a mean-revert; no fresh SIP catalysts on the tape (latest notes are 08-18).
- Setup forming: USLM near $119.70 — a reversal candidate on 2x volume; a hold above today’s range sets up a continuation entry tomorrow. Watch BTI $56.42 for the same on its 2.1x RVOL.
- Regime outlook: the split between a bullish 4% flip and contracting MA breadth keeps us in CRT mode — take breakouts in leading sectors only, keep risk tight, and let tomorrow’s breadth confirm before pressing size.