Midday Wave #95: Narrow Thrust: Bulls Lead, Breadth Fades – Tuesday 8/25/2026

Welcome to WaveRider mid-day wave, your mid-session market intelligence. Let's dive in. I mean, bull signals just beat bear signals 165-39, so why is the market actually getting narrower under the hood? Index data is dark today. We're flying on breath alone. Okay, so breath internals only. How's the regime shifted since the open? Honestly, mixed. That's the honest read. Short-term thrust flipped bullish, but participation's fading. Right, fading how much? 20 SMA breath dropped to 51% down from 62 with the open. That's an 11-point slide. Oh, wow. You know what? Whoa, 11 points. Look, 11 and the 40 SMA slipped to 50.17% from 54.43, so about 4.5 points off. Yeah, so fewer stocks carrying the tape. Right, but here's the split. The 4% sentiment flipped fully bullish. Mm-hmm. The 165 number. Bull 4% surge to 165 from 133, and bear 4% collapsed. 39 down from 232. Oh, man. Wait, 232 down to 39. In one session, yeah. Right. That's wild, so it's like a sprinter accelerating off the blocks. While the marathon field fins out behind him, exactly that. Okay, so with fewer names driving it, where's that thrust actually showing up? Leadership rotated hard, mining, precious metals, and crypto finance. 128 continuation signals total today. Okay. Give me the names. AEM at 222.94, up 2.3%, AUGO 90.18, up 3.2. CRCL 90.75, up 3.5, and BLSH 31.85, up a clean 4%. Yeah, nice. Anything bigger on the raw move? CRCG 16 bucks, up 6.6%, best raw mover in the ETF and closed fun bucket. Nice, but RVOL, what's the volume telling you? That's the thing. It's not confirming yet. Not at all. Here's the thing. Across the top 10, RVOL stuck between 0.2 and 0.8, so the price is moving, but the conviction isn't there yet. Not yet. Rotation into miners in crypto finance is money seeking shelter and speed at the same time, but volume hasn't voted. What about the institutional side, any confirmation? Some. The 20% study shows demand zone strength. SCCO sitting at 214.24 right at demand. VRTX at 547.59, also at demand. Right, right. Both holding. So basically both holding, but the name I'm watching is HCA. Why HCA? It's at 428.96, pressing directly into supply. 429.65 to 431.32. That's a decision point. Sure, like a runner hitting a wall. Exactly. Clear it. It's a breakthrough. Bounce off it, back to base camp. And base camp is? 406 demand. That's where rejection sends it. Okay, so given all this, the split, the thin breath, what changes from the morning plan? Honestly, favor the leaders, but size down. The thrust says lean into mining and crypto finance. But the narrow breath says stay careful. Right. Don't chase without RVOL confirmation. That's the missing piece today. Yeah, like waiting for the green light. Like direction looks clear, you just don't step out until volume says go. So what's the one level into the close? HCA's supply zone, 429.65 to 431.32. Clear it for continuation, rejected targets 406. Mm-hmm. And a second setup worth watching? ULTA, it's at 538.96 into its four-hour supply. As long as 532 holds, the setup stays constructive. And below 532? Invalidates, clean line in the sand. So the whole afternoon really comes down to thrust versus participant. That's it. Bullish, but narrow. Trade the leaders, keep risk tight. Let volume confirm before you add. Right. Perfect. So into the close, watch HCA's supply zone and ULTA's 532 hold line. Short term thrust is bullish, but narrow. So trade the mining and crypto finance leadership with tight risk and let RVOL confirm before you size up. Check back for the next regime update. We'll see you then. That's all for today's episode of Wave Rider Midday Wave. Your mid-session market intelligence. See you next time.