Situation Awareness: Cautious. Semiconductors staged a rebound after seven ugly sessions, lifting the Nasdaq (+0.66% to 26,172.34) ahead of the S&P 500 (+0.32% to 7,677.28) and the Dow (+0.30% to 53,577.40), with NVDA (+2.14% to $212.95) breaking its losing streak just ahead of Wednesday’s after-close earnings; note SPY/QQQ/IWM ETF prices and their 200-day levels are unavailable in today’s data so we lean on index cash levels. Trade mode for tomorrow: selective and defensive — let the PCE print and NVDA reaction set the tone before committing size. The tape was driven by a narrow chip snapback (SOX +1.4%) against soft retail and a 3.2% oil slide, so leadership was thin rather than broad. Regime context — 51.9% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 54.4% prior day, regime held at Cautious), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 202 bulls vs. 56 bears. The 5-day trend is choppy and two-sided, with breadth actually slipping day-over-day even as indexes rose — a divergence that signals narrowing participation.
SIP: NVDA SMCI MRNA HOOD
- What’s working: Continuation (2LYNCH) fired 19 signals, D9M 11 signals, 9M Catalyst 1 (HOOD), Reversal Bullish 5, Darvas Box 25 — momentum breakouts and biotech pivots led.
- Leading sectors: Basic Materials +1.49%, Healthcare +1.09%, Communication Services +0.98%; leading themes: Cannabis +10.42%, Generic Drugs +8.51%, Crypto/Blockchain +3.85%.
- Key event: Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS -30.68%) cratered on weak Foot Locker results, dragging NKE, DECK and LULU and gutting the athletic-apparel complex.
- Regime threading: morning SA called Cautious (54.4%), closing is Cautious (51.9%) — held, but the breadth erosion under a green tape keeps us defensive.
- DEP watchlist: HOOD, SMCI, UUUU, IBRX, SE — strongest D9M setups into tomorrow.
- SIPS: KYMR, SE, CDW — top Continuation swing candidates.
Market Breadth — 2026-08-25
| Sentiment 4% | Bullish | 40SMA | Neutral |
| Bull 4% | 202 | Bear 4% | 56 |
| % > 20 SMA | 56% | % > 40 SMA | 51.86% |
| Bull 9M | 22 | Bear 9M | 3 |