Situation Awareness: Cautious. After a bruising week that dragged the S&P 500 down 1.9% and the Nasdaq 2.5%, futures are staging a relief bid — S&P futures sit 36 points above fair value and Nasdaq futures +235, led by an extending crypto rally (Bitcoin +5% toward $77,000). Index cash levels are (data unavailable) this morning, so lean on breadth and futures for the read. The tape’s twin antagonists all week — rising Treasury yields and a nearly 3% oil spike on Iran tensions — are stable but not resolved, keeping this a bounce-inside-a-downtrend setup. Trade mode: selective and defensive, respect the relief but don’t chase into an unconfirmed reversal. Today’s swing factor is the 9:45 ET U.S. flash PMI print and any fresh Iran headlines. Regime context — 52.92% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 107 bulls vs. 247 bears, a decisively negative skew. The 5-day trend shows breadth eroding hard (40-SMA 52.92% vs 57.64%, 20-SMA 53% vs 60%), confirming this week was a genuine distribution sequence, not noise.
SIP: ANDG GEMI AVX CMRC
- What’s working: thin. Continuation/2LYNCH fired only 6 names, Reversal 12, and Delayed 9M is empty — a dry scan environment that argues for patience over aggression.
- Leading sectors: market closed — no live sector or theme performance data; ATR volatility table empty. Directional read must come from the macro tape, where energy and crypto-linked names carry the momentum.
- Key event: 9:45 ET U.S. flash S&P Global Manufacturing (prior 53.9) and Services (prior 54.6) PMIs — the only U.S. data all day and the session’s primary swing catalyst.
- Market read: yesterday closed at session lows with every major index down 1%+ on a rates-plus-oil squeeze; today’s gap-up is a mean-reversion attempt that must prove itself against 247 four-percent decliners.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today — nothing qualifies.
- SIPS: WELL, MSCI, CPAY — lowest-risk continuation names in a defensive tape.