Closing SA — 2026-09-10

Situation Awareness: Bearish. Stocks fell for a third straight session as WTI crude exploded +6.6% to settle above $102, the 10-year yield jumped 11 bps to 4.94%, and rate-hike odds surged to 73.1% ahead of tomorrow’s CPI — the S&P 500 (-0.6%), Nasdaq (-0.7%), DJIA (-0.6%), and Russell 2000 (-1.0%) all closed lower with nine of eleven sectors red. SPY/QQQ/IWM specific prices and moving-average levels are (data unavailable) today, so we lean on index percentages and breadth. Trade mode for tomorrow: selective and defensive — respect the tape, keep risk tight into the 8:30 AM CPI print. The defining context was an inflation-and-oil vice: surging energy, fresh 2026 highs across the Treasury curve, and a hawkish global backdrop (BoJ rhetoric, ECB 25 bps hike). Regime context — 29.97% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 38.2% prior day, regime shifted from Cautious-Bearish to Bearish), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 68 bulls vs. 247 bears. The 5-day trend shows a consistent down sequence, confirming downward momentum.

SIP: ASO COO AEO AVAV

• What’s working: continuation setups thinned out (2LYNCH: 12 signals, D9M: 5, Reversal: 0) — momentum leadership is narrowing hard as breadth collapses.
• Leading sectors: Communication Services (+0.45%), Financial (+0.04%), Technology (-0.16%); leading themes: Medical Research Equipment (+6.6%), Apparel/Shoes Retail (+2.71%), Travel Booking (+1.69%).
• Key event: WTI +6.6% to $102.30 (+~11.5% on the week) plus a slightly cool core PPI masked by July upward revisions pushed rate-hike odds to 73.1% from 61.2%.
• Regime threading: morning SA called Cautious-Bearish (38.2%), closing is Bearish (30.0%) — it shifted lower as the oil surge and yield spike broke breadth through the session.
• DEP watchlist: RDDT ($155.36, +6.1%), SNAP ($5.53, +4.0%), NTSK ($15.08, +4.3%), S ($19.82), CURI ($2.70).
• SIPS: RDDT ($155.36), ELV ($416.48, +4.9%), AAPL ($326.64, +3.6%) as relative-strength swing candidates.