Situation Awareness: Cautious Bearish. The tape enters Friday bruised — three straight down sessions driven by an oil surge (WTI above $102 yesterday) and relentlessly rising yields, but futures are catching a bid this morning as crude reverses hard, down 3.2% to $99.24 on reports Gulf states will meet Iran Monday to defuse Strait of Hormuz tensions. The whole session pivots on the 8:30 ET August CPI print (consensus 0.4%, prior 0.1%) — the deciding input for a September 16 FOMC where FedWatch now prices a 69.4% chance of a 25bp HIKE. Index levels are data-unavailable this morning, so lean on futures: S&P +42 @ 7,640, Nasdaq +195 @ 29,330, Dow +286 @ 52,381. Trade mode: selective and defensive into the number, let the print resolve before committing. Regime context — 34.04% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA (down from 38.26%), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 91 bulls vs. 277 bears. The 5-day trend shows a consistent down sequence, confirming downward momentum even as futures bounce.
SIP: COO AEO AVAV DBI
- What’s working: Continuation/2LYNCH scan is moderately full with 10 signals; Delayed 9M and Reversal scans are both empty — a defensive breadth read.
- Leading sectors: market closed — no live sector or theme data; ATR volatility feed is empty. Breadth internals are doing the talking, and they lean bearish.
- Key event: August CPI at 8:30 ET is the week’s marquee catalyst ahead of next Tuesday’s FOMC decision.
- Market read: yesterday closed lower for a third straight session (S&P -0.6%, Nasdaq -0.7%, Russell -1.0%) on oil and yields; today’s bounce is oil-relief driven, not conviction — fragile until CPI clears.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today — scan is dry, respect the lack of setups.
- SIPS: APP, RDDT, AAPL from the Continuation scan.