Situation Awareness: Cautious-to-constructive. The S&P 500 is set to open just above its baseline after notching fresh record highs last week and extending its weekly winning streak to three, but this is a low-catalyst week where index-level SPY/QQQ/IWM technical data is unavailable — so lean on futures and breadth rather than precise levels. S&P 500 futures sit +11 at 7,816 and Nasdaq futures +164 at 30,305, while Dow futures lag at -102/53,705 as mega-cap divergence persists. Trade mode: selective and watchful — let the tape confirm before pressing, with earnings-driven single names doing the work over index bets. Today’s context is defined by geopolitics (U.S.-Iran ceasefire expires today, Strait of Hormuz traffic near zero) and a barren U.S. data slate. Regime context — 64.46% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 204 bulls vs. 133 bears. The 5-day trend held firm into Friday’s record highs but breadth cooled, with the % above 20 SMA reading dropping sharply to 75% from 105%, signaling near-term momentum is flattening even as the longer-term structure holds.
SIP: GLOB GEMI VERI KULR
- What’s working: the Continuation/2LYNCH scan is moderately rich at 17 signals — respectable breadth. AAOI (+15.5%), KOPN (+13.9%), and AMD (+6.5%) lead the momentum names. Reversal scan is dry (1 signal: GM).
- Sector/volatility read (market closed — no live trending data): from Friday’s tape, ENERGY was the standout with the S&P energy sector +7.3% on the week; CHIPS strength shows in scan signals (AMD, KOPN); TELECOM active via AAOI. Weakest zones were consumer discretionary (-2.0%) and communication services (-1.0%) on mega-cap drag.
- Key event: U.S.-Iran ceasefire expires today with tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz “exceptionally low” — the dominant geopolitical swing factor for oil and risk.
- Market read: Friday was a quiet consolidation session after record highs — small/mid caps (Russell 2000 +1.1% week) outperformed mega-caps, pointing to broadening participation, a healthy backdrop but one that demands stock selection over index chasing.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today — watchlist deferred to continuation leaders.
- SIPS: AAOI, AMD, ARW from the Continuation scan as swing candidates.