Situation Awareness: Cautious, tech-led with a geopolitical overhang. Futures are edging higher on the back of a strong ASML report and yesterday’s cooler CPI, but the tape is fighting a fresh U.S. military offensive against Iran that kicked off at 6 a.m. ET and is keeping oil and sovereign yields firm. S&P futures sit +9 at 7,601, Nasdaq futures +115 at 29,905 — the Nasdaq is doing the heavy lifting as the semiconductor party rages on. Index SPY/QQQ/IWM cash levels are unavailable in today’s data, so we anchor to futures and breadth. Trade mode: selective and constructive on tech/semis, defensive into the 8:30 PPI print and the war headlines. Macro is calling the shots — inflation relief versus oil-driven inflation risk, with Fed Chair Warsh back on Capitol Hill at 10:00 ET. Regime context — 63.06% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 214 bulls vs. 174 bears. The 5-day trend is choppy but firming, with % above the 20-SMA ticking up to 26% from 24% and the 40-SMA holding flat near 63%, signaling a market that rebounded off Monday’s weakness without yet breaking out.
SIP: SKHY CLSK PRE ERIC
- What’s working: the Continuation/2LYNCH scan is rich with 22 signals — NET, RBRK, SNDX, CDNL leading — good breadth for breakout setups. Reversal scan is thin at 3 (ANET, RIVN, IBRX).
- Leading sectors (via ATR/signal concentration, market closed for live data): Software dominates continuation flow (NET, RBRK, CHYM, PTC), followed by Medical (SNDX, WAT) and Semiconductors driving the index narrative.
- Key event: U.S. Central Command launched a fresh wave of strikes against Iran at 6 a.m. ET; Trump is weighing a wider offensive and threatening Iranian power plants — oil and yields are the transmission channel.
- Market read: yesterday’s tape recovered a chunk of Monday’s damage — S&P +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.9%, DJIA flat — on soft CPI and a semiconductor rebound. Growth over defensives; today extends that if PPI cooperates.
- DEP watchlist: no D9M signals firing today — Delayed 9M scan is empty, keep the watch list tech-continuation weighted.
- SIPS: NET ($281.75, +4.5%), RBRK ($88.05, +5.0%), SNDX ($24.13, +5.4%).