Situation Awareness: Cautious. Futures are pointing sharply lower as semiconductor and memory names buckle in the premarket and WTI crude rips toward $75, dragging Treasury yields higher across the curve — S&P futures sit 39 points below fair value, Nasdaq futures a heavy 351 below. Index cash levels are (data unavailable) this morning, so lean on the futures skew and breadth for structure. Trade mode: selective and defensive into a two-front risk event — US-Iran escalation lifting oil and tomorrow’s June CPI plus the bank earnings kickoff. Regime context — 64.63% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 96 bulls vs. 165 bears, a decisively bearish short-term tilt even as the intermediate 40SMA reading holds neutral. The 5-day trend on breadth improved on both readings available — 40SMA +2.4pp and 20SMA +4.0pp — but the negative 4% gauge and gap-down futures say the tape is fragile, not healing.
SIP: VOD FRMI WDFC IONS
- What’s working: Continuation/2LYNCH scan is thin with 4 signals (PAY, DLO, TMUS, DG); Reversal scan has 3 (BE, DVN, ASTS); Delayed 9M is empty — a dry, low-conviction signal environment.
- Leading sectors: live sector and theme performance is unavailable (market closed) and the ATR volatility table is empty; from the futures tape, energy names are bid on crude while semiconductors/memory lead the downside.
- Key event: US-Iran strikes over the weekend with reported Strait of Hormuz disruption; crude +3.4% to $73.84, approaching last week’s high.
- Market read: Friday closed a mixed week — S&P +1.2%, Nasdaq +1.7%, DJIA -0.5% — with repeated buy-the-dip in chips. This morning that dip-buying reflex faces a real test as SK Hynix craters and Kospi drops 9%.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today — nothing qualifies.
- SIPS: TMUS (+3.4%, low ATR grind), DG (+2.8% defensive retail), DLO (+4.3% but 75% risk — size down).