Situation Awareness: Cautious. The tape is caught between two violent cross-currents — a cooler-than-expected June CPI that just detonated the futures higher, and a geopolitical/semiconductor drag that has been punishing tech for two weeks. June total CPI printed -0.4% MoM versus -0.1% consensus (prior +0.5%), and core CPI came in flat versus +0.2% expected, flipping the S&P futures from -19 to +32 above fair value and rocketing Nasdaq futures to +439. Index cash levels for SPY/QQQ/IWM are data unavailable this morning, so lean on the futures signal and yesterday’s closes (S&P -0.8%, Nasdaq -1.6%, DJIA -0.3%). Trade mode: selective and watchful — respect the CPI relief but don’t chase into an IBM-driven, Iran-headline session. Regime context — 63.24% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 176 bulls vs. 422 bears. The 5-day trend shows a consistent down sequence with the 20-SMA breadth cratering to 24% from 31%, confirming deteriorating internals beneath the surface even as headline indices try to stabilize.
SIP: ERIC AGEN TCBK FHB
- What’s working: Continuation/2LYNCH scan is rich with 31 signals — healthy breadth of trending names despite weak internals. Reversal scan is thin at 7 (MU, WDC leading lower). Delayed 9M is empty.
- Leading sectors: live Trending Sector and Theme data is unavailable (market closed) and the Sector Volatility ATR set is empty — from yesterday’s tape, energy (+3.2%) led on the oil surge while info tech (-2.1%) lagged hardest.
- Key event: June CPI landed sharply cool at 8:30 ET, undercutting the near-term rate-hike narrative Fed Governor Waller floated; new Fed Chair Warsh testifies before House Financial Services today.
- Market read: yesterday closed near session lows with semis down over 13% since July started and oil +9.4% — today’s CPI gives bulls a lifeline, but breadth says stay disciplined.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today — nothing qualifies.
- SIPS: CASY (+4.8%), CI (+3.8%), FIG (+12.0%) lead the Continuation swing candidates.