Closing SA — 2026-04-13

Situation Awareness: Cautious. The market opened with selling pressure tied to failed U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks and a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, but quickly reversed course as tech leadership, strong software earnings, and optimism around diplomatic de-escalation fueled a broad rebound. The S&P 500 reclaimed all Iran war losses and pushed back into positive YTD territory, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.2% on strong mega-cap and software performance. Today’s defining context: geopolitical risk priced in but not decisive — oil retreated from overnight highs near $105 to $98.97, and risk-on leadership came from information technology (+1.3%) and financials (+1.7%), not energy. Regime context — 59.41% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 53.6% prior day; regime held at Cautious), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 386 bulls vs. 41 bears. The 5-day trend turned up 3 of 5 days, signaling early recovery in market structure.

SIP: RVMD RVMD AMG ALM ALB

• What’s working today: 2LYNCH: 338, D9M: 160, Reversal: 214 — momentum continuation and sector rotation held strong.
• Leading sectors: Technology (+1.51%), Industrials (+1.64%), Financials (+0.86%); leading themes: AI infrastructure (+8.1% AMZN, +10.6% ARW), RVMD-scale biotech rallies, bank earnings beat with muted sell-the-news reaction.
• Key event: Revolution Medicines (RVMD) +41.4% on unprecedented Phase 3 pancreatic cancer survival data — regulatory path and commercial upside de-risked.
• Regime threading: morning SA called Cautious (53.6%), closing is Cautious (59.4%) — shifted slightly bullish due to rising breadth (+5.8 pp above 40 SMA) and strong sector breadth (9/11 sectors closed positive).
• DEP watchlist: ALAB (+11.9%), CRWG (+16.3%), IDYA (+7.5%), ALLO (+12.5%), CRWV (+8.2%).
• SIPS: AMG (ATR zone + supply resistance at $299.69), RVMD (breakout above $130, follow-through demand), ALM (relocation catalyst, +15.3% on volume surge).