Next Day Prep #241 Bullish

Next Day Prep #241: Regime Thresholds & PPI Trigger – Monday 4/13/2026

April 13, 2026 5:05

Tickers Mentioned

RVMD AMG ALM ALB GS MSFT ORCL SPY QQQ IDYA

Episode Summary

The regime stays Cautious despite strong breadth and sentiment—because only structural evidence, not noise, moves the needle. With PPI looming, we break down the exact thresholds that could flip the regime—and why RVMD’s setup was textbook.

Key Takeaways

Revolution Medicines +41.4% on practice-changing Phase 3 data, validating biotech breakout
Technology sector ATR hit all-time high at 1.51%, leading broadening breadth
41% of stocks above 40 SMA — regime holds at Cautious but trend improving
PPI and JPM/WFC/Earnings headline tomorrow — key regime test on horizon
Top setups: RVMD breakout, ALM momentum, AMG zone bounce — focus on tight VCP entries

Situation Awareness: Cautious. The market opened with selling pressure tied to failed U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks and a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, but quickly reversed course as tech leadership, strong software earnings, and optimism around diplomatic de-escalation fueled a broad rebound. The S&P 500 reclaimed all Iran war losses and pushed back into positive YTD territory, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.2% on strong mega-cap and software performance. Today’s defining context: geopolitical risk priced in but not decisive — oil retreated from overnight highs near $105 to $98.97, and risk-on leadership came from information technology (+1.3%) and financials (+1.7%), not energy. Regime context — 59.41% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 53.6% prior day; regime held at Cautious), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 386 bulls vs. 41 bears. The 5-day trend turned up 3 of 5 days, signaling early recovery in market structure.

SIP: RVMD RVMD AMG ALM ALB

What’s working today: 2LYNCH: 338, D9M: 160, Reversal: 214 — momentum continuation and sector rotation held strong.
Leading sectors: Technology (+1.51%), Industrials (+1.64%), Financials (+0.86%); leading themes: AI infrastructure (+8.1% AMZN, +10.6% ARW), RVMD-scale biotech rallies, bank earnings beat with muted sell-the-news reaction.
Key event: Revolution Medicines (RVMD) +41.4% on unprecedented Phase 3 pancreatic cancer survival data — regulatory path and commercial upside de-risked.
Regime threading: morning SA called Cautious (53.6%), closing is Cautious (59.4%) — shifted slightly bullish due to rising breadth (+5.8 pp above 40 SMA) and strong sector breadth (9/11 sectors closed positive).
DEP watchlist: ALAB (+11.9%), CRWG (+16.3%), IDYA (+7.5%), ALLO (+12.5%), CRWV (+8.2%).
SIPS: AMG (ATR zone + supply resistance at $299.69), RVMD (breakout above $130, follow-through demand), ALM (relocation catalyst, +15.3% on volume surge).

Market Scorecard

Final index performance: SPY (data unavailable), QQQ (data unavailable), IWM (data unavailable) — index prices not provided per data integrity rules.
Breadth final reading: 75% above 20 SMA, 59.41% above 40 SMA; 5-day trend turned up 3 of 5 days — early recovery pattern.
Volume context: Relative volume was mixed — tech/healthcare saw elevated turnover (RVMD RVOL 1.1, ALM 1.1), while broader market held near average; accumulation in tech/fiats, distribution in utilities/staples.

Today’s Scorecard — What Worked & What Didn’t

Winning strategy/sector: Technology (+1.51%) — RSPT ATR 1.51, highest in 12-day history; top performer RSPT +2.98% daily, led by Oracle (+12.71%), Adobe (+5.9% implied from ADBE upgrade), and software ETFs up 5.4%.
Second winning theme: Financials (+0.86%) — GS beat EPS but dipped on sell-the-news; broader sector strength from banking/m&A activity (+1.7% sector gain) and rising yield optimism (10Y down 2 bps to 4.30%).
What failed: Utilities (-1.2%) and Consumer Staples (-1.0%) — RSPU ATR 0.88 (down 1.17 pp), RSPS -1.58, driven by Conagra (-4.41%) after CEO departure news; defensive rotation stalled.
Breadth final reading: 75% above 20 SMA (+11.0 pp vs prior), 59.41% above 40 SMA (+5.8 pp) — early broadening, but not yet expansive.

Key Earnings & Economic Calendar

Most impactful earnings: GS +1.08 beat, -1.87% price reaction — “sell the news” pressure after strong run-up; Global Banking & Markets record performance signals sector tailwinds.
Second notable report: RVMD +41.4% — registrational Phase 3 pancreatic cancer data, doubling median OS; FDA expedited path expected.
Tomorrow’s economic data: 8:30 ET — March PPI (consensus +1.2% vs prior +0.7%) and Core PPI (consensus +0.4% vs prior +0.5%).
Tomorrow’s key earnings: Pre-market: FAST GS; Pre-market: ACI BLK KMX C JNJ JPM WFC; After-Hours: None.

Tomorrow’s Watchlist & Setups

AMG $291.11 — ATR zone + supply resistance at $299.69, nearest demand at $288.28 ($0.97% below) — setup: dollar 20-wk zone, between bands, FFM entry potential.
RVMD $136.30 — breakout above $130, new ATH; key level: $140 psychological + $145 near-term supply — setup: 2LYNCH continuation, VCP confirmed, breakout confirmation needed.
ALM $20.62 — +15.3% on relocation to Dillon, MT; RVOL 1.1, ATR 3.2% — setup: 2LYNCH momentum, earnings-free catalyst, low float.
ALB $173.64 — UBS PT upgrade, intraday momentum; price above 20 SMA, ATR 8.99 — setup: pullback buy, sector leadership continuation.
Sector to focus: Technology (+1.51 ATR, highest ever) — AI infrastructure, chip Equipment (ALB, CRWV), and biotech (RVMD, IDYA, ALLO) all showing inter-sector strength.

Strategy Outlook & Scenarios

Bullish scenario: S&P 500 breaks and holds above 5300 (SPY ~530) with 21-day volume expansion — confirms breakout and upgrades regime to Bullish.
Bearish scenario: 10Y yield closes >4.40% or % above 40 SMA falls below 55% — triggers regime downgrade to Cautious Bearish.
Strategy signal counts: 2LYNCH: 338, D9M: 160, Reversal: 214 — up vs yesterday in D9M (+32%), continuation momentum holds.
Tomorrow’s regime forecast: Cautious — breadth held at 59.41% but needs >62% for Bullish; oil ($99 target) and PPI data will be decisive.

Action Codes

CRT — Regime is Cautious (59.4%) with rising breadth; controlled risk in high-conviction 2LYNCH/D9M names only.
TTT — Tight Days pattern emerging in RVMD, ALB, AMG — VCP confirmed in 2-3 day windows, pullback entries optimal.

Summary & Final Thoughts

Tomorrow’s game plan: Enter on pullbacks in high-AATR tech/biotech with tight stops under 40 SMA or $20-wk support.
Key risk to manage: PPI surprise (core >0.5%) could re-ignite rate fear and flip leadership to defensives.
Overall market stance: Selective — broadening participation supports risk, but regime remains Cautious; avoid pure momentum without setup context.

Welcome to WaveRider Next Day Prep. Review today, prepare tomorrow. Let's dive in. Morning regime was cautious, and it held. Close was still cautious at 59.41% above the 40-day SMA. Right, because the regime only flips when you cross 62% above the 40-day SMA, not the 20, like a thermostat that hasn't quite hit the target temp yet. Still warm, but not in the comfort zone. So 75% above 20 is broad participation, but not yet expansive. Exactly. Imagine the 40-day SMA as the tide, slow-moving, deep. The 20-day, just chop on the surface. We need the tide to rise, not just the waves. Okay, but sentiment improved. 386 bulls versus 41 bears. Why didn't that move the needle? Hmm, because the regime ignores noise. It waits for structural evidence, not how people feel, but how the market behaves. And today, market leadership came from tech and biotech despite Iran tensions That confidence in earnings not fear defensives Huh So the regime being patient but what actually drove the upside Right Let break it down RVMD plus 41 wasn momentum It was the full setup Two-linch. Wait, what's two-linch again? Oh, right. The long-term trend and yield? Exactly. So it's the two-linch plus VCP plus ATR zone plus de-risked phase three data. I mean, it's textbook, but the data is what made it actionable. And AMZN and ARWB both popped plus 10.6%. Why them? Not every tech name. Yeah. Both held VWAP, had breakout-ready VCPs, and were in the AI infrawave, up 8.1% total. But energy lagged, even though oil spiked. No demand zone, no volume lift, so no technical confluence. Oh, that's interesting. CRWG plus 16%. Total surprise. Whoa, I didn't expect that one. I mean, I didn't expect it, but it fit. ATR zone plus volume spike, but narrow sector, so I'd not chase it above $140. No ATR zone, no lift. And IDYA plus 7 Weak relative volume so fade risk Not outright short but don catch the falling knife Okay so today was discipline day not hype day Mm-hmm. And tomorrow, PPI's the gatekeeper. Consensus is plus 1.2% headline, plus 0.4% core. Core greater than 0.5% reignites rate fears, so leadership flips to defensives. But if it's below 0.5%, then tech and biotech leadership holds. So what's the pre-trade checklist? Three things. One is oil under $99. Two is RVMD holding $136. Three is breadth still above 62%. RVMDs add $136.30 right now. So $140 is the psych break. Yeah. And $145 is supply. Needs confirmation. Don't chase. AMG at $291.11. Wait, is that right before resistance? Yeah, $299.69. Exactly. ATR zone plus resistance at $299.69. Watch for volume surge into it, not after. ALM broke out plus 15 ATR 3 Exactly But I wouldn buy above No ATR zone no volume lift So regime stays cautious unless... Breadth holds above 62% or oil stays under $99. Both hinge on PPI. Wait, what if PPI core is below 0.4%? Then tech and biotech leadership holds. Regime might shift to bullish if breadth holds above 69%. Huh. So it's all about thresholds, not sentiment, not noise. Right. It's about the tide rising, not the waves. Okay. Last thing. What's your one-line takeaway for tomorrow? Trade setups, not headlines. PPI isn't the story. It's the trigger. Love that. Trade setups, not headlines. Exactly. Thanks, Algenib. My pleasure. This is Gakrux for WaveRider Next Day Prep, signing off. Stay selective, stay sharp. And remember, the regime waits for the tide to turn, not the waves. Yeah, tide waits for no one. But when it turns, you'll know. That's all for today's episode of WaveRider Next Day Prep. Review today. Prepare tomorrow. See you next time.

Next Day Prep #247 Bullish

Try WaveFinder

Market Scorecard

Today’s Scorecard — What Worked & What Didn’t

Key Earnings & Economic Calendar

Tomorrow’s Watchlist & Setups

Strategy Outlook & Scenarios

Action Codes

Summary & Final Thoughts

More Episodes

Next Day Prep #247: Expectations Over Earnings – Thursday 4/23/2026

Power Hour #28: Breadth Collapse & Industrial Lifeline – Thursday 4/23/2026

Midday Wave #33: The Breadth Fault Line – Thursday 4/23/2026