Regime Check — Where Are We Now?
Regime remains strongly bullish — market breadth has expanded in every metric since yesterday, with rising % above both 20-SMA and 40-SMA, and sentiment flipped from early bearish (40SMA Bear > Bull) to today’s Very Bullish (Bull 4%: 387 vs Bear 4%: 50).
- Breadth expanded: % above 20-SMA rose 4.0pp (64% → 68%), and % above 40-SMA rose 2.7pp (53.65% → 56.31%) vs. yesterday.
- Technology sector (RSPT) hit record high ATR of 1.33, while Industrials (RSPN) at 1.38 — both trending strongly higher.
- Energy (RSPG) fell to 0.75 — lowest in 2+ weeks — confirming sector rotation into tech, industrials, and financials.
Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP
SIP activity highlights strong biotech momentum and a clean reversal setup in financials, while continuation signals dominate in mid-cap tech and industrials.
- 2LYNCH leader: ALLO +7.8% from open, positive interim data, RVOL 1.48, ATR% -7.8% — clear breakout on conviction.
- Reversal strength: STRC at $100.00, flat price, RVOL 2.6, ATR% 1.9 — tight VCP with institutional interest.
- SIP leaders: ALB (+8.4%) and RVMD (+9.3%) both showing strong upticks on news — UBS PT upgrade and Phase 3 readout.
- Action code: 2LYNCH — breakout confirmation in ALLO and ALMU, both with >10% RVOL and institutional support.
Closing Playbook — What To Do Now
Focus on preserving gains in overextended names while waiting for confirmation setups to enter.
- CLOSE positions in PLCE — Q4 results missed, but gap-up to $3.97 +10.28% suggests exhaustion — likely reversal day.
- ENTER only on confirmation: Watch for ALLO to hold above $2.65 (current: $2.72) into close — breakout above interim high.
- Key SPY level: $512.00 — if SPY closes >$512, bullish momentum likely continues; close < $508.50 signals pullback risk.
Tomorrow’s Early Look
Biotech and chip equipment lead today’s charge — early leads may extend into Wednesday.
- Overnight catalyst: Fed Chair Powell testimonial at 12:30 ET Thursday — watch for rate path clues affecting tech valuations.
- Setup forming: ALMU ($10.76, +1.21 gap) — secured $4M govt contracts; watch for confirmation above $11.00 Thursday open.
- Regime outlook: today’s breadth expansion and sector rotation confirm the Bull 9M: 40 / Bear 9M: 5 setup — remain heavily bullish bias.