Market Summary
U.S. equity futures are pointing sharply higher heading into Thursday’s pre-market session, with S&P 500 futures up 33.00 points and Nasdaq futures up 178.00 points above fair value as of 08:03 ET, fueled by renewed enthusiasm for the AI trade. Alphabet’s unveiling of its new Gemini 4 Argon model and another blowout earnings beat from Micron are driving the bid, even as Micron shares themselves are modestly lower in the premarket (-0.85%) despite beating EPS expectations by $1.70 and posting a 87.0% non-GAAP gross margin.
This follows a turbulent close to September. Wednesday’s session ended on a weak note after a sharp final-hour selloff erased earlier gains: the DJIA fell 443.87 points (-0.9%) to 50,905.96, the S&P 500 slipped 19.30 points (-0.3%) to 7,651.64, while the Nasdaq Composite managed to hold a slim gain, up 63.52 points (+0.2%) to 26,882.10. That divergence capped a September defined by extremely narrow market leadership — mega-cap growth, technology, and semiconductor names carried the indices higher while the broader market languished. For the month, the Nasdaq Composite gained 1.9%, but the S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the DJIA dropped 4.3%, the S&P MidCap 400 lost 4.3%, and the Russell 2000 declined 5.3%.
The key macro overhang remains the bond market. Treasury yields surged throughout September (2-yr +55 bps, 10-yr +56 bps for the month) on sticky inflation and hawkish Fed rhetoric, with the 10-yr note touching 5.34% overnight — its highest level since 2002 — before settling back. Rising crude oil prices, stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari’s comments favoring additional rate hikes are also tempering the otherwise bullish premarket tone. WaveFinder breadth data confirms the fragility beneath the surface: primary sentiment is “Very Bearish” with only 6% of stocks above their 20-day moving average and 17.33% above their 40-day moving average, even as the 40 SMA sentiment reading is technically “Oversold.”
Market Snapshot
Thursday Pre-Market Futures (08:03 ET):
- S&P 500 futures: +33.00 vs. fair value
- Nasdaq futures: +178.00 vs. fair value
- (Earlier levels at 06:18 ET: S&P +16.00, Nasdaq +145.00)
Wednesday (Sep 30) Closing Levels:
- DJIA: 50,905.96 (-443.87, -0.9%)
- S&P 500: 7,651.64 (-19.30, -0.3%)
- Nasdaq Composite: 26,882.10 (+63.52, +0.2%)
- Russell 2000: -0.3% (month: -5.3%)
- S&P MidCap 400: -0.5% (month: -4.3%)
September Monthly Performance:
- Nasdaq Composite: +1.9%
- S&P 500: -0.5%
- DJIA: -4.3%
- S&P MidCap 400: -4.3%
- Russell 2000: -5.3%
- Equal-Weighted S&P 500: -4.5% (entering 9/30)
Year-to-Date Performance:
- Nasdaq Composite: +15.6%
- Russell 2000: +12.7%
- S&P 500: +11.8%
- S&P MidCap 400: +8.8%
- DJIA: +5.9%
WaveFinder Market Breadth (10/01/26):
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bearish
- 4% Sentiment: Neutral
- 40 SMA Sentiment: Oversold
- Primary Bulls/Bears: 545 / 830
- 4% Bulls/Bears: 5 / 1
- Stocks Above 20 SMA: 6%
- Stocks Above 40 SMA: 17.33%
- 9M Bulls/Bears: 2 / 0 (50% follow-through)
Breadth (Sep 30 NYSE/Nasdaq): Decliners outpaced advancers by roughly 9-to-5 on the NYSE; a slim margin of decliners led on the Nasdaq.
Sector Performance
Ranked by Wednesday (Sep 30) session performance, with WaveFinder ATR (volatility trend/percentile) noted where available:
| Rank | Sector | Daily Change (9/30) | September Change | WaveFinder ATR (Trend, Percentile) |
|—|—|—|—|—|
| 1 | Information Technology | +0.6% | +4.4% | 1.83% (Rising, P100) |
| 2 | Consumer Discretionary | +0.1% | — | -2.49% (Flat, P0) |
| 3 | Communication Services | Flat (0.0%) | +4.3% | -1.47% (Falling, P0) |
| 4 | Health Care | -1.4% | — | 1.54% (Flat, P42) |
| 5 | Financials | -1.2% | — | -2.70% (Falling, P0) |
| 6 | Industrials | -1.3% | — | -2.46% (Flat, P5) |
| 7 | Energy | n/a | — | -1.73% (Falling, P5) |
| 8 | Materials | n/a | — | -2.32% (Falling, P5) |
| 9 | Consumer Staples | -1.7% | — | -1.62% (Flat, P5) |
| 10 | Utilities | n/a | — | -4.03% (Flat, P26) |
| 11 | Real Estate | n/a | — | -3.88% (Falling, P0) |
Technology was the standout performer both on the day and for the month, aided by a 9.5% monthly surge in the PHLX Semiconductor Index and a 1.2% gain in the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF (IGV) on Sep 30. Note: Energy, Materials, Utilities, and Real Estate daily percentage changes were not specified in available source data.
Key Earnings & Movers
- Accenture (ACN) — $214.00, +30.63 (+16.70%): Topped Q4 revenue estimates, guided Q1 revenue in line, and projected FY27 revenue growth of 3-6%.
- Alphabet (GOOG) — $347.49, +6.75 (+2.0%) premarket: Higher after CEO Sundar Pichai introduced the new Gemini 4 Argon AI model.
- McCormick (MKC) — $48.65, +2.25 (+4.85%): Beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates, reaffirmed FY26 guidance; Unilever integration on track.
- Micron (MU) — $1,056.01, -9.10 (-0.85%) premarket: Beat EPS by $1.70 and beat revenue estimates with an 87.0% non-GAAP gross margin; guided Q1 EPS/revenue above consensus.
- Synopsys (SNPS) — $450.71, +15.77 (+3.63%): Issued above-consensus FY27 guidance at Investor Day; outlined mid-teens long-term revenue growth target through FY30.
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) — $63.89, +2.40 (+3.90%): Hit a record high after raising FY27 Networking outlook and increasing Juniper cost synergy targets.
- Jabil (JBL) — -$32.08 (-10.06%) to $286.76: Fell despite better-than-expected results and upbeat outlook, as elevated AI-growth expectations weren’t met.
- Meta Platforms (META) — $725.18, -13.61 (-1.84%): Sold off sharply into Wednesday’s close.
- The Cigna Group (CI): Traded sharply lower after reaffirming FY26 guidance without upside surprise at Investor Day; introduced $3 bln modernization initiative.
- Moderna (MRNA) — $192.57, -10.89 (-5.35%): Downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup.
Stock Spotlight
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) is the standout mover from Wednesday’s session, closing at a record high of $63.89 (+3.90%) after raising its Networking outlook for the second time in weeks ahead of its Networking Investor Day. HPE now expects FY27 Networking revenue growth in the high-teens to low-20s (up from 14-17% guided earlier this month), with Data Center Networking revenue projected to grow at a low-to-high-50s CAGR through FY29 on surging AI-driven demand for higher-bandwidth, lower-latency infrastructure. Q3 Networking revenue reached $2.9 billion (+10% normalized), while orders jumped 36% — a clear signal that demand is running well ahead of recognized revenue.
The company also announced its first AMD Helios AI Rack order, a $1.2 billion deal with Vultr, and raised its Juniper integration cost-synergy target to $800 million in annualized run-rate savings by the end of FY28, up from $600 million previously. Routing revenue is expected to grow at a low-to-high-20s CAGR through FY29, while Campus, Branch & Security businesses are targeted for high-single-digit CAGR growth. Briefing.com’s analysis notes that the pace of upward revisions — twice in a matter of weeks — combined with HPE’s long-term framework of high-teens Networking revenue CAGR and mid-to-high-20s operating margins from FY27-FY29, positions the Juniper-enhanced networking franchise as an increasingly important growth engine within the broader AI infrastructure buildout.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Treasury yields are little changed to modestly lower this morning after an overnight bout of weakness. The 10-yr note yield touched 5.34% overnight — its highest level since 2002 — before reversing on short-covering from an oversold condition; it now sits at 5.28% (-2 bps). The 2-yr note yield spiked to 4.92% overnight before settling at 4.86% (-3 bps).
Current Yield Check (as of 07:59 ET):
- 2-yr: 4.86% (-3 bps)
- 3-yr: 4.97% (-3 bps)
- 5-yr: 5.07% (-2 bps)
- 10-yr: 5.28% (-2 bps)
- 30-yr: 5.63% (-1 bp)
Wednesday (Sep 30) Close:
- 2-yr: 4.89% (unchanged; +55 bps for September)
- 10-yr: 5.30% (+4 bps; +56 bps for September — “a September to remember”)
- 30-yr: 5.64% (+5 bps; +40 bps for September)
Drivers of overnight weakness included trend momentum, rising oil prices, and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari (FOMC voter) signaling expectations for one more rate hike this year and another in 2027. Energy-driven inflation concerns persist after China’s refiners suspended October fuel exports and U.S.-Iran diplomatic relations remain strained. Today brings a heavy slate of Fedspeak alongside the Treasury’s $6 billion buyback operation.
Commodities
- WTI Crude Oil: $91.83/bbl, +1.6% (overnight); settled $90.54/bbl Wednesday (+$1.28, +1.4%) amid lack of diplomatic progress on Iran and concerns over constrained refined-product flows despite Strait of Hormuz exports returning to pre-war levels.
- Gold: $4,202.40/ozt, +0.4%
- Copper: $6.56/lb, -1.0%
- Silver: Not reported in available data.
Overseas Markets
Asia (Japan led regional trading; mainland China and Hong Kong closed for National Day holiday):
- Japan’s Nikkei: +3.4% (closing at 68,956.72, +2,203.00, +3.30% per Asian market data) — boosted by Japanese AI/semiconductor shares advancing on Micron’s upbeat outlook
- South Korea’s Kospi: +1.9%
- India’s Sensex: -0.1%
- Australia’s All Ordinaries: -1.9%
- Hong Kong’s Hang Seng / China’s Shanghai Composite: Closed for holiday
Asian Economic Data: Japan’s Q3 Tankan Large Manufacturer Index 24 (expected 25; prior 22); September S&P Global Manufacturing PMI 54.1 (expected 54.1; prior 54.9). Australia’s September PMI 49.6 (expected 49.3; prior 52.0). South Korea’s September Exports surged 83.5% (expected 61.7%; prior 68.7%). India’s HSBC Manufacturing PMI 55.1 (expected 55.7; prior 52.8).
Europe: Markets trading lower as elevated bond yields, rising oil prices, and inflation concerns weigh on sentiment.
- STOXX Europe 600: -0.6%
- U.K. FTSE 100: -1.2%
- Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.9%
- Spain’s IBEX 35: -0.8%
- France’s CAC 40: -0.7%
- Germany’s DAX: -0.2%
European Drivers: French financial shares under pressure amid 2027 budget concerns; stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations keeping oil/inflation concerns elevated. Eurozone September HCOB Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.9 (expected 52.7); August Unemployment Rate held steady at 6.4%.
Economic Data
Wednesday (Sep 30) Releases:
- August PCE Price Index: +0.3% m/m (consensus +0.4%); Core PCE: +0.2% m/m (consensus +0.3%) — slightly cooler than feared, though YoY PCE remained at 3.4% (3.0% core), still well above the Fed’s 2.0% target
- August Personal Income: +0.2% (consensus +0.4%); Personal Spending: +0.9% (consensus +0.7%)
- September ADP Employment Change: +90,000 (consensus +58,000)
- Q2 GDP (third estimate): revised up to 2.2% (consensus 1.5%) from 1.5%
- Advance International Trade in Goods deficit: widened to $132.6 billion from a revised $118.9 billion
Market Impact: The inflation data initially pushed the 10-yr yield down to 5.20%, but the realization that inflation remains well above target triggered a reversal, with yields finishing higher (10-yr settled +4 bps at 5.30%).
Looking Ahead
Today’s Remaining U.S. Economic Calendar (10/01/26):
- 8:30 AM ET: Initial Jobless Claims (consensus 200K; prior 197K) and Continuing Claims (prior 1,719K)
- 9:05 AM ET: Fed speakers Barkin, Collins, Schmid (non-voters)
- 9:30 AM ET: ECB President Lagarde
- 9:45 AM ET: September S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI – Final (consensus 55.3; prior 57.0)
- 10:00 AM ET: August Construction Spending (consensus 0.3%; prior -0.1%)
- 10:00 AM ET: September ISM Manufacturing Index (consensus 55.2%; prior 54.6%)
- 10:00 AM ET: Fed Governor Waller (voter)
- 10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Inventories (prior +53 bcf)
- 13:30 ET: Fed Governor Jefferson (voter)
- 15:00 ET: Fed Governor Bowman (voter)
- 15:30 ET: NY Fed President Williams, Fed Governor Cook (voters)
- 18:45 ET: Dallas Fed President Logan (voter)
Key Themes to Watch: A heavy slate of Fedspeak today following Kashkari’s hawkish overnight comments; continued focus on whether rising Treasury yields (10-yr at multi-decade highs near 5.30%) can stabilize; ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and their impact on crude oil and inflation expectations; and whether AI-driven strength in mega-cap tech (following Alphabet’s Gemini 4 Argon launch and Micron’s earnings beat) can broaden market participation beyond the narrow leadership that defined September.