Market Summary
U.S. equities closed out the third quarter on a sour note, with a sharp final-hour selloff erasing earlier gains and underscoring September’s theme of increasingly narrow market leadership. The S&P 500 slid 19.30 points (-0.25%) to settle at 7651.64, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped a steeper 443.87 points (-0.86%) to 50905.96. The Nasdaq Composite was the lone bright spot, eking out a 63.52-point gain (+0.24%) to close at 26882.10, though it too surrendered roughly two-thirds of an earlier 1.0% intraday advance.
The divergence between headline index performance and the broader market was stark all session. Mega-cap growth and AI-related names — particularly software — powered the tape, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) up 1.2% and the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF rising 0.4%. Information Technology was the day’s top-performing sector, while Consumer Discretionary was the only other sector to close in the green. Communication Services, initially strong, surrendered a sizable gain as Meta Platforms and Alphabet reversed sharply into the close, contributing directly to the market’s late-day fade. Everywhere else, selling was pronounced, with Consumer Staples, Health Care, Industrials, and Financials all posting losses exceeding 1%.
For the month, the contrast was even more dramatic: the Nasdaq Composite finished September up 1.9%, while the S&P 500 fell 0.5%, the DJIA fell 4.3%, the Russell 2000 fell 5.3%, and the S&P Mid Cap 400 fell 4.3%. Breadth deteriorated as the session wore on, with decliners outpacing advancers by roughly 9-to-5 on the NYSE. A better-than-feared August PCE inflation report offered brief support, but with headline PCE still running at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 3.0%, well above the Fed’s 2.0% target, Treasury yields stayed elevated and provided little lasting relief.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 50,905.96 | -443.87 | -0.86% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,882.10 | +63.52 | +0.24% |
| S&P 500 | 7,651.64 | -19.30 | -0.25% |
Advance/Decline (Exchange-Reported):
- NYSE: 997 advancers / 1,734 decliners | Volume: 1.51 bln
- Nasdaq: 2,083 advancers / 2,357 decliners | Volume: 8.82 bln
WaveFinder Breadth Metrics:
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bearish | 4% Sentiment: Bearish | 40 SMA Sentiment: Oversold
- Primary Bulls/Bears: 633 / 1,073
- 4% Bulls/Bears: 95 / 136
- Stocks Above 20-day SMA: 15%
- Stocks Above 40-day SMA: 15.77%
- 9-Month Bulls/Bears: 9 / 10 (Bull Follow-Through: 29.41%)
YTD Performance: Nasdaq Composite +15.6% | Russell 2000 +12.7% | S&P 500 +11.8% | S&P Mid Cap 400 +8.8% | DJIA +5.9%
Sector Performance
1. Information Technology — +0.6% (best performer; +4.4% for September)
2. Consumer Discretionary — +0.1% (supported by Amazon)
3. Communication Services — Flat (gave back early gains; +4.3% for September)
4. Financials — -1.2%
5. Industrials — -1.3%
6. Health Care — -1.4% (Moderna downgrade weighed)
7. Consumer Staples — -1.7% (session’s weakest sector)
8. Materials — Weak (Briefing.com “Weak” list; exact % not disclosed)
9. Real Estate — Weak (Briefing.com “Weak” list; exact % not disclosed)
10. Utilities — Weak (Briefing.com “Weak” list; exact % not disclosed)
11. Energy — Not explicitly ranked in Industry Watch; crude oil rose 1.4% on the session
WaveFinder Sector ATR (Volatility):
Health Care leads in volatility expansion (ATR 1.74%, P63), followed by Technology (ATR 1.58%, rising, P95). Real Estate (-3.72%, P0) and Utilities (-4.24%, P21) show the steepest volatility contraction, both trending lower.
Key Earnings & Movers
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) — $63.89, +$2.40 (+3.90%); hit a new all-time high after raising its FY27 Networking outlook and Juniper cost-synergy targets ahead of its Networking Investor Day.
- Jabil (JBL) — $286.76, -$32.08 (-10.06%); slumped despite better-than-expected results and upbeat guidance, as elevated AI-growth expectations went unmet.
- Meta Platforms (META) — $725.18, -$13.61 (-1.84%); sold off sharply into the close, dragging Communication Services lower.
- Alphabet (GOOG) — $340.74, +$3.42 (+1.01%); one of the session’s mega-cap bright spots.
- Amazon (AMZN) — $249.15, +$2.48 (+1.01%); led Consumer Discretionary’s gain.
- Moderna (MRNA) — $192.57, -$10.89 (-5.35%); downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup.
- Micron (MU) — $1,065.11, +$0.03 (flat); reported earnings after today’s close, with investors focused on memory pricing and AI demand trends.
- The Cigna Group (CI) — Sharply lower after Investor Day; reaffirmed FY26 adjusted EPS of at least $30.45 (vs. $30.51 consensus) and adjusted revenue of ~$280 bln (vs. $287.17 bln consensus), disappointing investors hoping for an upgraded outlook.
Stock Spotlight
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) was the standout story of the session, closing at $63.89 (+3.90%) and touching a fresh all-time high after raising its Networking outlook for the second time in weeks — just as it prepares for its Networking Investor Day. Management now expects FY27 Networking revenue growth in the high-teens to low-20s, up from the 14–17% guidance issued earlier this month, while Data Center Networking revenue is projected to grow at a low-to-high-50s CAGR through FY29 on surging AI-driven demand for higher-bandwidth, lower-latency infrastructure. In Q3, Networking revenue reached $2.9 bln (up 10% normalized) while orders jumped 36%, signaling demand running well ahead of realized revenue. HPE also disclosed its first AMD Helios AI Rack order — a $1.2 bln deal with Vultr — underscoring its expanding footprint in AI networking infrastructure.
Equally notable was progress on the Juniper integration: HPE raised its expected annualized run-rate cost synergies to $800 mln by the end of FY28, up from the prior $600 mln target, and said integration remains ahead of schedule. The company’s long-term framework now calls for high-teens Networking revenue CAGR from FY26–FY29 alongside mid-to-high-20s operating margins. Briefing.com’s analysts noted that the pace of upward revisions — twice in a matter of weeks — highlights unusually strong underlying demand, positioning HPE’s Networking segment as an increasingly important growth engine within the broader AI infrastructure buildout.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Treasuries gave back an early rally after a head-fake reaction to the PCE inflation data. Yields initially fell sharply following the 8:30 a.m. ET release, but as markets digested that 3.4% headline PCE (3.0% core) remains well above the Fed’s 2.0% target, the move reversed.
Yield Levels (Settle):
- 2-yr: 4.89%, unchanged on the day (+55 bps for September)
- 3-yr: 5.00%, +1 bp (+60 bps for September)
- 5-yr: 5.09%, +3 bps (+60 bps for September)
- 10-yr: 5.30%, +4 bps (+56 bps for September) — highest levels in the “bear flattener” move that defined the month
- 30-yr: 5.64%, +5 bps (+40 bps for September)
Higher crude prices played a modest role in the day’s trade, though the market was largely unmoved by news the Treasury will purchase up to $6 bln in bonds Thursday as part of a buyback operation. The month’s overall yield surge continues to reflect concerns over persistent inflation, heavy debt issuance, and the prospect of further Fed tightening.
Commodities
- WTI Crude Oil: $90.54/bbl, +$1.28 (+1.4%) — rebounded after Tuesday’s sharp decline; CNBC reported Strait of Hormuz export flows have returned to pre-war levels, though refined-product flows remain constrained.
- Gold: $4,184.80/ozt, +0.1%
- Copper: $6.61/lb, unchanged
- Silver: Not reported in available data
Overseas Markets
Specific index levels for Asia and Europe were not provided in today’s data set; however, key regional economic releases included:
- China: September Manufacturing PMI 50.1 (expected 50.1; prior 49.8); Non-Manufacturing PMI 50.2 (expected 49.2; prior 49.0); Composite PMI 50.7 (prior 49.5) — signaling a return to expansion territory across both manufacturing and services.
- U.K.: Q2 GDP +0.5% qtr/qtr (expected 0.4%; prior 0.6%) and +1.4% yr/yr (expected 1.2%; prior 0.9%) — stronger-than-expected growth.
Economic Data
- August PCE Price Index: +0.3% m/m (consensus 0.4%); Core PCE: +0.2% m/m (consensus 0.3%) — cooler than expected, though year-over-year PCE held at 3.4% (revised down from 3.7% in July) and core PCE at 3.0% (revised down from 3.3%), both still well above the Fed’s 2.0% target.
- Personal Income: +0.2% m/m (consensus 0.4%); Personal Spending: +0.9% m/m (consensus 0.7%) — spending outpacing income, pressuring the personal savings rate.
- Q2 2026 Real GDP (Third Estimate): 2.2% (consensus 1.5%), revised up from 1.5%, reflecting stronger investment, consumer spending, and government spending; GDP Price Deflator revised down to 6.1% (consensus 6.3%) from 6.4%.
- September ADP Employment Change: +90,000 (consensus 58,000) — stronger-than-expected private payroll growth.
- Advance International Trade in Goods Deficit: widened to $132.6 bln in August from a downwardly revised $118.9 bln in July (previously -$118.8 bln).
- Advance Retail Inventories: +0.3%; Advance Wholesale Inventories: +0.7%.
- MBA Mortgage Applications Index (week of 9/26): -6.0% wk/wk (refinance applications -9%, purchase applications -4%).
Net effect: data broadly showed resilient growth and still-elevated inflation, reinforcing market expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady in October while leaving the door open to further tightening later in the year.
Looking Ahead
Thursday, October 1 Economic Calendar:
- 8:30 ET: Initial Jobless Claims (consensus 200K; prior 197K); Continuing Jobless Claims (prior 1,719K)
- 9:05 ET: Fed speakers — Richmond Fed President Barkin, Boston Fed President Collins, Kansas City Fed President Schmid (all non-FOMC voters)
- 9:30 ET: ECB President Lagarde speaks
- 9:45 ET: September S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI – Final (consensus 55.3; prior 57.0)
- 10:00 ET: August Construction Spending (consensus 0.3%; prior -0.1%)
- 10:00 ET: September ISM Manufacturing Index
Earnings Watch: Micron (MU) reported after Wednesday’s close — investors will be parsing results overnight for confirmation that strong memory pricing and AI-related demand can offset rising capital expenditures, with market reaction likely to set an early tone for Thursday’s session, particularly within semiconductors.
Other Items to Monitor: The Treasury’s $6 bln bond buyback operation is scheduled for Thursday. Markets will also continue watching for developments on U.S.-Iran talks, potential diesel export policy action, and the OPEC meeting this Sunday, where production targets are expected to remain unchanged.