Market Summary
Equity markets traded mixed at midday on Wednesday, September 30, with mega-cap technology and communication services names driving index-level gains even as participation across the broader market remained weak. The S&P 500 added 41.35 points (+0.54%) to 7712.29, and the Nasdaq Composite surged 271.55 points (+1.01%) to 27090.13, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 41.63 points (-0.08%) to 51308.20, weighed down by softness among rate-sensitive and value-oriented components.
The session’s tone was set by a better-than-feared August PCE inflation report, which initially sent Treasury yields lower and futures higher before the enthusiasm faded. By midday, the 10-year yield had reversed back above yesterday’s settlement level, tempering some of the morning’s optimism. Sector leadership was narrow and familiar: Information Technology, Communication Services, Consumer Discretionary, and Energy were the standout gainers, while Real Estate, Industrials, Health Care, Consumer Staples, Utilities, and Financials lagged. The “Magnificent Seven” cohort provided the bulk of index support, with Alphabet and Apple among the top mega-cap performers, helping the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 meaningfully outperform the equal-weighted S&P 500 (-0.1%).
Beneath the headline numbers, breadth metrics painted a far more cautious picture. NYSE decliners (1,389) outpaced advancers (1,211), and WaveFinder breadth data showed a “Very Bearish” primary sentiment reading with just 15% of stocks above their 20-day moving average and 18.13% above their 40-day moving average. This divergence between narrow mega-cap leadership and broad-based weakness has been a defining theme of the month, consistent with September’s underperformance across equal-weighted, small-cap, and mid-cap benchmarks.
Market Snapshot
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| S&P 500 | 7712.29 | +41.35 | +0.54% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27090.13 | +271.55 | +1.01% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 51308.20 | -41.63 | -0.08% |
Breadth (NYSE): Advancers 1,211 | Decliners 1,389 | Volume 242.77 mln
Breadth (Nasdaq): Advancers 2,264 | Decliners 1,820 | Volume 4.47 bln
WaveFinder Breadth Indicators:
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bearish (Bulls 662 | Bears 1,032)
- 4% Sentiment: Bullish (Bulls 146 | Bears 85)
- 40 SMA Sentiment: Oversold
- Above 20-day SMA: 15%
- Above 40-day SMA: 18.13%
- 9-Month Bulls: 14 | Bears: 5 (Follow-Through: 23.53%)
Sector Performance
Advancing:
1. Communication Services: +1.4%
2. Information Technology: +1.2%
3. Energy: +0.8%
4. Consumer Discretionary: +0.7%
Declining (six sectors, losses limited to 0.6% or narrower per Briefing.com):
5. Real Estate
6. Industrials
7. Health Care
8. Consumer Staples
9. Utilities
10. Financials
Note: S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index -0.1%, underscoring narrow, mega-cap-driven leadership.
WaveFinder Sector Volatility (ATR):
- Health Care: 1.98% (flat, P74)
- Technology: 1.51% (rising, P95)
- Industrials: -1.84% (flat, P68)
- Consumer Staples: -1.53% (flat, P0)
- Energy: -1.86% (falling, P0)
- Communication Services: -0.94% (falling, P16)
- Consumer Discretionary: -2.12% (flat, P16)
- Materials: -2.15% (falling, P0)
- Financials: -2.18% (falling, P11)
- Real Estate: -3.45% (falling, P0)
- Utilities: -3.60% (falling, P32)
Key Earnings & Movers
- Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) — $64.89, +$3.40 (+5.53%), new all-time high after raising its FY27 Networking outlook and increasing expected Juniper cost synergies ahead of its Networking Investor Day.
- Jabil (JBL) — $296.55, -$22.29 (-6.99%), volatile despite a sizable Q4 beat and above-consensus Q1/FY27 guidance, as elevated AI-driven expectations overshadowed the results.
- Conagra (CAG) — $13.37, -$0.76 (-5.38%), lower despite its largest EPS beat ($0.41) in several quarters; sales fell 1.4% to $2.60 bln and FY27 guidance was reaffirmed.
- Cigna (CI) — sharply lower after reaffirming FY26 guidance (adjusted EPS at least $30.45 vs. $30.51 consensus; revenue ~$280 bln vs. $287.17 bln consensus) without new near-term upside, alongside a new $3 bln modernization initiative.
- Alphabet (GOOG) — $347.89, +$10.57 (+3.13%), a standout mega-cap gainer.
- Apple (AAPL) — $337.46, +$8.06 (+2.45%), among the session’s leaders.
- Amazon (AMZN) — $250.57, +$3.90 (+1.58%), widened gains as consumer discretionary outperformed.
- Tesla (TSLA) — $350.96, -$1.88 (-0.53%), cut its early loss in half intraday.
Stock Spotlight
Hewlett Packard Enterprise was the session’s standout mover, rallying 5.53% to $64.89 and touching a fresh all-time high after raising its FY27 Networking outlook for the second time in weeks — just months after lifting it alongside Q3 (July) results. The company also increased its expected cost synergies from the Juniper acquisition and laid out a stronger growth framework extending through FY29, ahead of its Networking Investor Day.
The move reflects growing investor conviction that HPE’s Networking segment is becoming a critical growth engine as AI infrastructure spending broadens beyond compute into switching, routing, and connectivity. Notably, Q3 results already showed normalized orders up 36% versus just 10% revenue growth, indicating a significant demand backlog. The Juniper integration is also expanding HPE’s footprint across data center networking, campus, and security, while the raised synergy target signals solid execution that could provide an additional margin lever as the combined business scales.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Treasury yields reversed higher after an initial post-PCE rally faded, with longer-dated maturities pushing back above yesterday’s settlement levels by midday.
Latest Yield Check (11:43 ET):
- 2-yr: 4.87% (-2 bps)
- 3-yr: 4.98% (-1 bp)
- 5-yr: 5.07% (+1 bp)
- 10-yr: 5.28% (+2 bps)
- 30-yr: 5.64% (+5 bps)
The 10-year note initially dropped to 5.20% immediately following the 8:30 a.m. ET PCE release but climbed back to 5.28% as the session progressed. The key driver remains stubbornly elevated inflation: PCE rose 3.4% year-over-year and core PCE rose 3.0% year-over-year in August, both unchanged from July and still well above the Fed’s 2.0% target, keeping the possibility of another rate hike before year-end firmly in play. USD/JPY traded at 157.21 and EUR/USD at 1.1354.
Commodities
- WTI Crude Oil: $91.41/bbl, +$2.03 (+2.3%), amid a relatively quiet morning of geopolitical headlines
- Gold: $4,208.80/ozt, +0.7%
- Copper: $6.61/lb, +0.2%
- (Silver data not available in source material)
Overseas Markets
Specific overnight index levels were not detailed, but key macro data releases shaped sentiment heading into the U.S. session:
- China: September Manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1 (expected 50.1, prior 49.8); Non-Manufacturing PMI at 50.2 (expected 49.2, prior 49.0); Composite PMI at 50.7 (prior 49.5) — signaling a return to expansion territory.
- U.K.: Q2 GDP grew 0.5% qtr/qtr (expected 0.4%, prior 0.6%) and 1.4% yr/yr (expected 1.2%, prior 0.9%).
Other overnight headlines included limited progress in U.S.-Iran talks, a White House AI industry event where executives signed an “AI constitution,” and reports that OPEC will likely leave production targets unchanged at Sunday’s meeting.
Economic Data
- August PCE Price Index: +0.3% m/m (consensus +0.4%); +3.4% yr/yr (unchanged from July, revised down from 3.7%)
- August Core PCE Price Index: +0.2% m/m (consensus +0.3%); +3.0% yr/yr (unchanged from July, revised down from 3.3%)
- August Personal Income: +0.2% m/m (consensus +0.4%)
- August Personal Spending: +0.9% m/m (consensus +0.7%) — spending outpacing income contributed to a decline in the personal savings rate
- Q2 2026 GDP (third estimate): +2.2% (consensus +1.5%), revised up from 1.5%, reflecting stronger investment, consumer spending, and government spending; GDP Price Deflator revised down to 6.1% (consensus 6.3%) from 6.4%
- September ADP Employment Change: +90,000 (consensus +58,000)
- Advance International Trade in Goods: Deficit widened to $132.6 bln from a downwardly revised $118.9 bln in July
- Advance Retail Inventories: +0.3%
- Advance Wholesale Inventories: +0.7%
- MBA Mortgage Applications Index: -6.0% wk/wk (refinance -9%, purchase -4%)
The data package was interpreted as “better-than-feared” on inflation, though the underlying 3-handle on both headline and core PCE keeps the door open for additional Fed tightening before year-end.
Looking Ahead
With the October FOMC meeting on the horizon, markets will continue parsing incoming data for clues on the rate path — the CME FedWatch Tool showed the implied probability of an October hike falling to 43.7%-49.3% range following NY Fed President Williams’ comments that there is “no urgency” to act after September’s rate hike. Investors will watch whether Treasury yields can sustain their pullback or resume their September climb, given the month’s “bear flattener” dynamic (2-yr +55 bps, 10-yr +52 bps for September entering today). No specific next-session earnings or economic releases were detailed in the available source material; continued attention to breadth deterioration and rate-sensitive sector performance is warranted given the extremely weak WaveFinder sentiment readings.