Market Summary
U.S. equity futures are pointing to a sharply higher open ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC decision, with S&P 500 futures up 36.00 points and Nasdaq futures up 200.00 points versus fair value as of 8:02 AM ET. The rally in futures comes even as the CME FedWatch Tool assigns a 92.7% probability to a 25-basis-point rate hike at 2:00 PM ET, which would lift the fed funds target range to 3.75-4.00%. A pullback in crude oil — WTI is down 2.3% to $103.39/bbl after settling above $105 Tuesday — combined with a moderation in Treasury yields (10-yr down to 4.97% from Tuesday’s 4.996% close) is providing relief for risk assets.
The bounce follows a second consecutive down session on Tuesday, when the DJIA fell 328.09 points (-0.6%) to 52,093.11, the S&P 500 dropped 34.25 points (-0.5%) to 7,585.73, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 204.84 points (-0.8%) to 26,002.62. That decline was driven by a 4.5% surge in crude oil to $105.82/bbl — the tenth gain in 11 sessions — alongside a 10-year yield that touched 5.00%, pressuring rate-sensitive sectors including utilities (-1.2%) and consumer discretionary (-1.8%). Energy (+2.3%) was the lone standout on Tuesday amid the oil spike.
Market breadth remains notably weak heading into the FOMC decision. WaveFinder’s Primary Sentiment reading is “Very Bearish” with only 782 bulls versus 960 bears, and just 16% of stocks trading above their 20-day moving average (28% above the 40-day). The setup suggests the market is oversold into a widely-expected hawkish outcome, with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s 2:30 PM ET press conference likely to be the session’s key swing factor as investors assess whether this marks the start of a broader tightening cycle.
Market Snapshot
Tuesday’s Close (9/15):
| Index | Level | Change | % Change |
|—|—|—|—|
| DJIA | 52,093.11 | -328.09 | -0.6% |
| S&P 500 | 7,585.73 | -34.25 | -0.5% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,002.62 | -204.84 | -0.8% |
Pre-Market Futures (vs. Fair Value):
- S&P 500 futures: +36.00
- Nasdaq futures: +200.00
2026 YTD Performance:
- Russell 2000: +15.7%
- Nasdaq Composite: +11.8%
- S&P 500: +10.8%
- S&P Mid Cap 400: +10.8%
- DJIA: +8.4%
Market Breadth (WaveFinder):
- Primary Sentiment: Very Bearish (Bulls 782 / Bears 960)
- 40 SMA Sentiment: Bearish
- 4% Sentiment: Neutral
- % Stocks Above 20-day SMA: 16%
- % Stocks Above 40-day SMA: 28%
Sector Performance
Tuesday’s Session (9/15):
1. Energy: +2.3% — surged on crude oil rally
2. Materials: +0.4%
3. Technology: -0.3% (Semiconductors/PHLX: +0.4%)
4. Financials: -0.3% — crypto weakness intensified after Clarity Act procedural vote failed
5. Communication Services: -0.8% — mega-cap weakness
6. Utilities: -1.2% — pressured by rising yields
7. Consumer Discretionary: -1.8% (session laggard) — inflation margin concerns, homebuilder weakness
Volatility Watch (WaveFinder Sector ATR, falling trend across most sectors):
- Energy: ATR 2.41% (falling, highest volatility percentile at P47)
- Health Care: ATR 1.33% (falling, P16)
- Communication Services: ATR 0.68% (falling, P21)
- Technology: ATR -1.21% (flat, P21)
- Consumer Staples: ATR -1.01% (falling, P16)
- Financials: ATR -0.96% (falling, P0)
- Materials: ATR -1.44% (falling, P0)
- Consumer Discretionary: ATR -2.04% (falling, P0)
- Industrials: ATR -2.13% (falling, P0)
- Real Estate: ATR -2.72% (falling, P5)
- Utilities: ATR -3.49% (falling, P0)
Key Earnings & Movers
- Coinbase Global (COIN) 172.11, -19.34 (-10.10%) — worst S&P 500 performer Tuesday after Bitcoin gave back gains and the Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act
- Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) 34.83, -2.20 (-5.94%) — consumer discretionary laggard
- Carvana (CVNA) 66.89, -3.98 (-5.62%) — pressured alongside discretionary sector
- Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) -15% — Q2 EPS and revenue miss, comps -2.9%
- Meta Platforms (META) 674.80, +4.56 (+0.7%) — CEO rejected calls to slow AI development
- NVIDIA (NVDA) 213.58, +1.41 (+0.7%) — CEO Jensen Huang said “not going to let an AI slowdown happen”
- SK Hynix (SKHY) 181.14, +6.31 (+3.5%) — chip-manufacturing talks with Intel
- Intel (INTC) 100.37, +3.23 (+3.3%) — reported talks with SK Hynix on U.S. memory chip production
- James Hardie Industries (JHX) — trading lower despite Investor Day updates on AZEK synergy progress
- Celsius (CELH) +1.7% — director insider purchase (~$1.0 mln)
- FTAI Aviation (FTAI) +2.8% — authorized $500 mln buyback
- NewAmsterdam Pharma (NAMS) +4.1% — CEO insider purchase (~$227K)
- G-III Apparel (GIII) +2.6% — CEO Morris Goldfarb insider purchase (~$1.1 mln)
Stock Spotlight
Coinbase Global (COIN) — the session’s most significant decliner, falling 19.34 points (-10.10%) to $172.11 on Tuesday, finishing among the worst-performing S&P 500 components. The stock came under intensifying pressure in the afternoon after the U.S. Senate failed to advance the Clarity Act in its first procedural vote — legislation intended to establish a regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and digital assets. Bitcoin also gave back Monday’s gains, compounding the selling pressure on crypto-adjacent equities. The failed procedural vote represents a setback for the broader push toward digital-asset regulatory clarity, and financials-sector weakness on the day (-0.3%) was directly tied to this crypto-related selloff, even as the sector recovered somewhat from its session lows.
Dave & Buster’s (PLAY) also warrants attention, falling 15% after a mixed Q2 report: EPS missed, revenue fell 2.4% yr/yr to $544.1 mln, and comps were -2.9% (though improved from -5.4% in Q1). Adjusted EBITDA dropped 24% yr/yr with margin compression to 18.2% from 23.3%. However, under new CEO Darin Harper (promoted from CFO in August 2026), monthly comp trends have been improving — from -5.0% in June to -1.6% in July, with further improvement cited in early Q3 — suggesting the turnaround narrative, while not yet reflected in headline results, may be gaining traction.
Bond Market & Treasuries
Treasuries are trimming recent losses ahead of the FOMC decision, with the 10-year note up 5/32 in price, pushing the yield down to 4.973% from Tuesday’s close of 4.996%. The 10-year had reached as high as 5.04% overnight Monday — its highest level since 2007 — before retreating.
Pre-market Yield Check (changes from Tuesday’s close):
- 2-yr: 4.63% (-3 bps)
- 3-yr: 4.72% (-4 bps)
- 5-yr: 4.79% (-4 bps)
- 10-yr: 4.97% (-3 bps)
- 30-yr: 5.34% (-2 bps)
Tuesday’s close: 2-yr note yield settled up 3 bps to 4.66%; 10-yr note yield settled up 4 bps to 5.00%. Tuesday’s $13 billion 20-year bond reopening drew dismal demand, including record-low foreign participation. Treasury Secretary Bessent testified before the House Financial Services Committee, attributing rising yields to global issues including higher energy prices. A pullback in oil prices is the primary driver behind this morning’s bond-market advance, with the U.S. Dollar Index up 0.1% to 99.68.
Commodities
| Commodity | Level | Change |
|—|—|—|
| WTI Crude Oil | $103.39/bbl | -2.3% (overnight) |
| Gold | $4,391.10/ozt | +1.4% (overnight) |
| Silver | $63.84 | -0.32 (Tue close) |
| Copper | $6.52/lb | +1.2% (overnight) |
| Nat Gas | $2.92 | +0.03 (Tue close) |
WTI settled at $105.82/bbl Tuesday (+4.59, +4.5%), its tenth gain in 11 sessions and highest level since late May, driven by the ongoing conflict with Iran — crude is now up nearly $20/bbl in September. This morning’s pullback to $103.39 is providing modest relief to equity futures. Gold jumped 1.4% overnight to $4,391.10 after falling $18.70 to $4,333.60 on Tuesday.
Overseas Markets
Asia (overnight, 9/16): Broadly higher on speculation that Presidents Trump and Xi could discuss reducing tariffs on agricultural and energy products at their upcoming meeting.
- Nikkei: 63,923 (+438.90, +0.70%)
- Hang Seng: 24,713.78 (+46.50, +0.20%)
- Shanghai Composite: +0.7%
- Sensex: +0.5%
- Kospi: +1.4%
- ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3%
(Note: This follows a softer Tuesday session — Nikkei flat, Hang Seng -1.0%, Shanghai -0.5%)
Europe (trading now): Broadly higher, led by British homebuilders following upbeat Barratt Redrow results.
- STOXX Europe 600: +0.6%
- FTSE 100: +0.6%
- FTSE MIB: +0.8%
- CAC 40: +0.5%
- IBEX 35: +0.4%
- DAX: +0.3%
(Tuesday: DAX -0.2%, FTSE -0.4%, CAC -0.3%)
Key overseas news: Japan PM Takaichi confirmed cabinet changes tomorrow with key officials retaining posts; Hong Kong released its first five-year plan; EC President von der Leyen called for Canada’s admission as an EU associate member; Bank of England is not expected to hike rates tomorrow but may announce an end to active 20-/30-year Gilt sales.
Economic Data
Released overnight/this morning:
- MBA Mortgage Applications (9/12): -4.1% (prior -2.7%)
- Japan August trade deficit: JPY840 bln (narrower than expected JPY1.00 trln deficit); Imports +28.0% yr/yr, Exports +19.3% yr/yr
- Japan July Core Machinery Orders: -3.7% m/m (expected -1.2%)
- U.K. August CPI: +0.5% m/m, +3.1% yr/yr, as expected — second consecutive acceleration
- U.K. Core CPI: +0.3% m/m, +2.6% yr/yr, as expected
- Eurozone July Industrial Production: -0.1% m/m (better than expected -0.2%)
- Italy August CPI: +0.5% m/m, +3.3% yr/yr, as expected
Yesterday’s key release: Empire State Manufacturing Index fell to 7.6 in September (Briefing.com consensus 14.1) from 20.6 in August, though prices paid jumped to 63.1 — a four-year high — reinforcing the case for today’s expected rate hike.
Pending today (market-moving):
- 8:30 AM ET: August Retail Sales (consensus +0.9%; prior -0.6%) and ex-auto (consensus +0.5%; prior -0.3%)
- 8:30 AM ET: Import/Export Prices
- 10:00 AM ET: July Business Inventories (consensus +0.2%) and September NAHB Housing Market Index (consensus 34; prior 35)
- 10:30 AM ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories (prior -0.39M)
- 2:00 PM ET: September FOMC Decision (consensus 3.75-4.00%; prior 3.50-3.75%)
- 4:00 PM ET: July Net Long-Term TIC Flows (prior -$172.7B)
Looking Ahead
The dominant catalyst for the remainder of today’s session is the 2:00 PM ET FOMC rate decision, with markets pricing a 92.7% probability of a 25-basis-point hike to 3.75-4.00%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s 2:30 PM ET press conference will be closely scrutinized for forward guidance, particularly given his stated preference for a “quieter Fed” and whether today’s move signals the start of a broader tightening cycle. The updated Summary of Economic Projections will accompany the decision.
Ahead of the Fed, Retail Sales data at 8:30 AM ET (consensus +0.9% headline) will offer a read on consumer health following recent inflation-driven margin concerns in the discretionary sector. The NAHB Housing Market Index (10:00 AM ET) will provide insight into homebuilder sentiment amid the elevated-rate environment.
Overseas, the Bank of England decision is due tomorrow — no rate hike is expected, but markets will watch for confirmation that active sales of 20- and 30-year Gilts will cease. Continued volatility in crude oil (near $103-106/bbl amid the Iran conflict) and the path of the 10-year Treasury yield (currently 4.97%, having touched 5.04% this week) remain critical swing factors for equity direction into the FOMC announcement and beyond.