Situation Awareness: Cautious Bearish. Futures are pointing higher into an FOMC day that carries genuine two-sided risk — the CME FedWatch Tool prices a 92.7% chance of a 25bp HIKE to 3.75-4.00%, a rare instance where the Fed is tightening into sticky inflation rather than easing. A hot August Retail Sales print (+1.2% vs 0.9% consensus) already crossed the tape at 8:30 ET, reinforcing the hawkish case, while a pullback in crude to ~$103.42 is providing the relief that’s lifting futures. SPY/QQQ/IWM cash-index prices and SMA levels are unavailable in today’s data, so we’re leaning on futures and breadth for the read: S&P futures +27 @ 7,683, Dow +164 @ 52,690, Nasdaq +164 @ 29,411. Trade mode: selective and defensive — respect the 2:00 PM ET decision and 2:30 PM Warsh presser as the day’s pivot. Rates and oil are still the puppet-masters. Regime context — 32.4% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 111 bulls vs. 296 bears. The 5-day trend shows choppy, distribution-heavy action with two consecutive declines into the meeting, though the jump in % above 20 SMA (26% vs 21%) hints at a shallow short-term bounce attempt beneath the surface.
SIP: LUXE TPST HQ ARWR
- What’s working: Continuation/2LYNCH is the only rich lane with 8 signals (TMO, DHR, FFIV, TWLO, WAT), led by medical names; Reversal scan thin at 5 (HOOD, MRK, NEM); Delayed 9M is empty — breadth-thrust setups are absent.
- Leading sectors/themes: live Trending Sector and Theme data is unavailable (market closed) and the Sector Volatility ATR feed is empty — from yesterday’s tape, energy (+2.3%) and materials (+0.4%) were the only green sectors, while consumer discretionary (-1.8%) and utilities (-1.2%) lagged.
- Key event: September FOMC decision 2:00 PM ET (consensus 3.75-4.00%) with Warsh press conference 2:30 PM — the first tightening step of a potential new cycle.
- Market read: yesterday’s second straight decline on surging oil and a 10-yr at 5.00% signals a defensive tape; today’s futures pop is oil-relief, not conviction — fade strength that fails.
- DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today — nothing qualifies.
- SIPS: TMO ($641.39, +4.5%, RVOL 1.8), FFIV ($430.88, +4.7%), TWLO ($242.16, +4.4%) from the Continuation scan.