The Morning Dose

Morning Dose #370: Massive AI Costs Trigger Tech Selloff – Thursday 10/29/2026

Episode 3706:00

0:006:00

Episode summary

Alphabet’s double-digit plunge on soaring AI capex and negative free cash flow is sinking Nasdaq futures, while Microsoft’s beat offers thin cover. With the Fed on hold, a December hike near-fully priced, and September PCE and Q3 GDP due at 8:30 ET, traders should stay selective and defensive in quality leaders insulated from the AI-valuation...

Key points

  • The market regime is cautious, with 46.82% of stocks above their 40-day simple moving average.
  • Alphabet fell 10.79% to $287.15 after a 90 cent EPS miss and negative free cash flow of $9.06 billion, while Microsoft rose 1.60% to $539.50.
  • Market breadth is firming: the 20-day SMA breadth gauge rose 14 points to 51% as capital moves into medical and quality large caps.
  • Scanner shows two LYN continuation signals in Eli Lilly, Vertex Pharmaceuticals and IBM; use CRT (controlled risk taking) with tight stops and T3A (think three days ahead).
  • Wait for the 8:30 AM ET Q3 GDP and September PCE data before committing capital, with an 83.3% probability of a December Fed hike.

Ticker charts

MSFT

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MSFT in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 29, 2026.

LLY

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open LLY in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 29, 2026.

VRTX

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open VRTX in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 29, 2026.

IBM

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open IBM in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 29, 2026.

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