Morning Dose #371: AI Capex Panic Triggers Market Rotation – Friday 10/30/2026

Key points

• Massive AI capex (Amazon's $220B) is triggering 'show me the money' concerns as payback timelines lengthen, with Intel not expecting positive cash flow until 2027.
• QQQ broke below both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, signaling broken short and medium-term tech trends, while SPY held up better and IWM (small caps) actually gained.
• Capital is rotating out of stretched mega-cap tech valuations into non-AI small caps like aerospace, defense, retail, and machinery rather than fleeing the market entirely.
• The continuation scan generated 45 signals showing relative strength concentrated in non-AI names, suggesting healthy setups exist beneath ugly tech headlines.
• Recommended action codes for the day are CRT (controlled risk-taking) and T3A (think three days ahead), favoring tightly-managed trades in non-AI leaders over catching falling tech knives.