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Futures rally on a SpaceX beat and an Asia chip-stock surge, but breadth remains under the bullish threshold and the Fed’s hawkish path keeps multiples compressed. Yesterday’s quiet headline session hid a strong rotation into small caps and healthcare, while tonight’s Meta and Tesla earnings — after Netflix’s post-beat selloff — will decide whether this...
Chapter by chapter
SpaceX Pops, Fed Caps the Rally
Futures levels, breadth check, the overnight chip-driven Asia rally, and the Fed's hawkish rate path compressing valuations.
Rotation Under the Hood
Yesterday's quiet headline numbers mask a broad rotation into small caps and healthcare, plus a QQQ vs SPY technical read and tonight's earnings lineup.
Scans, Codes, and Scenarios
Continuation and reversal scan leaders, risk-management action codes, and gap-up/gap-down game plans for the session.
Key points
Breadth improved sharply to 35.98% above the 40-day SMA but still sits below the bullish threshold, keeping the tape in Cautious mode.
An 83% priced chance of a December Fed hike has compressed the S&P's forward multiple from 22.2x to 19.4x.
Yesterday's flat headline indices hid a strong rotation: Russell 2000 up 1.7% and nine of 11 sectors green.
QQQ is the technically weak index (RSI 40.8, below its SMA20) while SPY holds support near its SMA50.
Netflix's post-beat 8.4% drop is the cautionary tale for tonight's Meta and Tesla earnings — guidance, not the beat, is the scorecard.
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