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TSM crushed earnings estimates but the stock fell anyway, as money rotates out of semiconductors into financials and software. The hosts break down the Cautious regime call, improving breadth, sticky inflation data, and today’s trading playbook built around AMAT and TSM as sentiment gauges.
Chapter by chapter
TSM's Beat-and-Fall Paradox
Opening hook on TSM's record earnings beat met with a stock decline, and the Cautious regime call with improving breadth.
Futures Split & Sticky Inflation
Nasdaq vs S&P futures divergence alongside hot Eurozone CPI/PPI and rising 10-year yields keeping the Fed hike odds elevated.
Asia Rallies, Calendar Ahead
Nikkei and Kospi gains despite TSM's drop, plus today's key economic data checkpoints.
TSM Earnings Breakdown
A detailed look at TSM's beat-and-raise quarter and why fear overrode fundamentals.
Leaders vs Laggards
Equal-weight S&P strength versus Nasdaq weakness, with financials/software leading and semiconductors like AMAT, LRCX, INTC, and COHR lagging.
Today's Playbook & Action Codes
Continuation names to watch, AMAT as the bellwether, and the CRT/T3A controlled-risk approach.
Gap Scenarios & Closing Take
Gap-up and gap-down game plans plus the episode's core message: trade the rotation, not the fear.
Key points
TSM beat on every metric but fell 1.73%, showing fear can override fundamentals in a Cautious regime.
Market breadth is healing (32.11% of stocks above 40-day, up from 24.76%) but still early-stage.
This is a rotation, not a risk-off move — money is flowing from semiconductors into financials, software, and cyclicals.
AMAT and TSM are the key stocks to watch as sentiment gauges for whether chip selling continues or exhausts.
Today's action codes are CRT (Controlled Risk Taking) and T3A (Think 3 Days Ahead) — stay selective and sized-down ahead of next week's inflation data.
See TSM in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open TSM in WaveFinder.
See AMAT in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open AMAT in WaveFinder.
See LRCX in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See INTC in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See COHR in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See SEZL in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See FICO in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See AXP in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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See SMTC in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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