The Morning Dose

Morning Dose #359: CPI Shock, Oil Spike, and a Stock-Picker’s Tape – Wednesday 10/14/2026

Episode 3595:51

0:005:51

Episode summary

A hot CPI print and surging oil prices trigger a violent futures reversal, dragging the regime to Cautious Bearish with deeply negative sentiment. Despite the macro gut-punch, breadth is mixed and the Continuation scan still flags 22 setups led by AVGO, ADI, and LNG, prompting a defensive first-hour-pass approach ahead of the 2 PM Beige...

Chapter by chapter

CPI Shock Flips Futures

Hot CPI data sends S&P futures from plus 16 to minus 9 in 29 minutes as oil surges and the regime is stamped Cautious Bearish.

Fed Odds and Compressed Valuations

Bond market stays calm while Fed hold odds hold near 78%, and forward multiples compress from 22.2x to 19.4x.

Breadth Split and Bearish Sentiment

40-day breadth ticks up while 20-day breadth slips, and the bull-bear gauge swings deeply bearish at 126 vs 428.

Sector Winners and Losers

Energy and Communication Services lead while Health Care and Caterpillar drag, and bank earnings beats fail to stop selling.

Continuation Scan Standouts

22 continuation signals surface led by AVGO, ADI, AMD, and low-risk LNG despite the ugly index backdrop.

Action Codes and Scenario Plan

Defensive FHP and COUGAR codes call for patience, with a gap-up/gap-down game plan centered on the 2 PM Beige Book.

Key points

  • Hot CPI (headline +0.6%, core +0.3%) triggered a violent futures reversal, sending the regime to Cautious Bearish with only 30.26% of stocks above their 40-day line.
  • Oil's surge to $95.90 WTI on Strait of Hormuz threats compounds inflation fears, though the 10-year yield at 5.20% has stayed steady so far.
  • Sentiment is deeply bearish (126 bulls vs 428 bears) and bank earnings beats from Goldman, Citi, and Morgan Stanley failed to stop selling.
  • Despite the macro backdrop, the Continuation scan shows 22 signals, with AVGO, ADI, and low-risk LNG standing out as selective long opportunities.
  • Defensive action codes FHP and COUGAR argue for patience through the first hour and ahead of the 2 PM Beige Book release.

Ticker charts

AVGO

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open AVGO in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 14, 2026.

ADI

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ADI in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 14, 2026.

AMD

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open AMD in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 14, 2026.

LNG

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open LNG in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 14, 2026.

MPC

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MPC in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 14, 2026.

VLO

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open VLO in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 14, 2026.

META

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open META in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 14, 2026.

JNJ

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open JNJ in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 14, 2026.

CAT

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CAT in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 14, 2026.

GS

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open GS in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 14, 2026.

C

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open C in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 14, 2026.

MS

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MS in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 14, 2026.

MDT

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MDT in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Oct 14, 2026.

More from The Morning Dose