The Morning Dose

Morning Dose #342: Hawkish Fed, Bullish Tape: Trading the Disconnect – Friday 9/18/2026

Episode 3425:34

0:005:34

Episode summary

The Fed hiked rates to 3.75-4%, signaled more hikes ahead, and pushed rate cuts out to 2028 — yet futures rallied anyway. The hosts break down the improving-but-narrow breadth picture, the tech-led sector rotation, and lay out a Continuation-scan playbook with CRT and BBT action codes for the session ahead.

Chapter by chapter

Hawkish Hike, Bullish Reaction

Fed raises rates to 3.75-4%, signals more hikes and no cuts until 2028, yet the regime call stays cautious with improving breadth near 32%.

Dot Plot & Global Reaction

Unanimous hike, sixteen of eighteen officials see another hike, Asia rallies despite a BOJ hike while Europe lags on inflation and fiscal worries.

Breadth Flips Bullish

The four-percent gauge swings sharply bullish as tech and consumer discretionary lead while financials and small caps lag behind the Nasdaq.

Oil, Yields & Geopolitics

Falling oil prices and a ten-year yield failing to hold five percent give stocks room to run despite an Iran tanker strike and Aramco supply halt.

Continuation Scan Picks

AMD, Micron, SanDisk, Intel, and Generac lead volume-confirmed breakouts while steel names gap down as a counter-trend rotation signal.

Action Codes & Game Plan

CRT and BBT action codes define risk levels for gap-up versus gap-down scenarios, with the ten-year's five-percent line as the key tell.

Key points

  • The Fed hiked to 3.75-4%, signaled more hikes, and pushed rate cuts to 2028 — yet stocks rallied, led narrowly by tech and semis.
  • Breadth is improving fast (28% to 32% of stocks above their 40-day line) but remains in a cautious, sub-32% regime, not a confirmed bull market.
  • Falling oil prices and a ten-year yield failing to hold five percent are the key relief valves letting equities rally despite hawkish Fed policy.
  • Only the Continuation scan is firing — the playbook is to ride existing winners like AMD, Micron, and SanDisk, not chase new names.
  • Watch the ten-year yield's five-percent line: holding below it favors BBT breakout aggression, breaking above it means tightening to CRT defined-risk mode.

Ticker charts

AMD

Open in app
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open AMD in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 18, 2026.

MU

Open in app
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MU in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 18, 2026.

SNDK

Open in app
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SNDK in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 18, 2026.

INTC

Open in app
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open INTC in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 18, 2026.

GNRC

Open in app
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open GNRC in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 18, 2026.

NUE

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open NUE in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 18, 2026.

STLD

Open in app
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open STLD in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 18, 2026.

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