The Morning Dose

Morning Dose #341: Bearish Breadth, Bullish Futures: Trading the Disconnect – Thursday 9/17/2026

Episode 3415:35

0:005:35

Episode summary

Futures rip higher on falling oil and cooling yields, but breadth metrics still flash bearish for a second straight session. The hosts break down the Fed’s hawkish hike, Warsh’s rate-conflict comments, and why narrow chip-and-hardware leadership means traders should wait for the open before chasing the gap.

Chapter by chapter

Bearish Breadth vs Ripping Futures

The regime call stays bearish despite a strong futures rally, with breadth deteriorating for a second session.

The Fed Hike and Warsh's Hawkish Tone

A unanimous 25bp hike and hawkish dot plot from Warsh spike yields and crush the prior session's tape.

Oil Slide Eases Inflation Fears

A second straight drop in crude and a potential Iran diplomatic catalyst pull yields back down, lifting global futures.

Futures Levels and Today's Data Docket

A rundown of index levels and a heavy economic calendar including Philly Fed, Housing Starts, and Pending Home Sales.

Narrow Leadership: Chips Up, Financials Down

Breadth gauges show the rally concentrated in semis and hardware while financials and energy lag badly.

Continuation Scan: ALAB, Dell, Lumentum, Generac

Twelve continuation signals fire, dominated by chip names, plus a surprise AI-adjacent mover in Generac.

Action Code: FHP and Trade Scenarios

The hosts lay out a wait-for-confirmation game plan with gap-up and gap-down scenarios for the session.

Key points

  • Breadth remains bearish (28.38% above 40-day average, down two sessions) even as futures surge, signaling a conflict traders should let the open resolve.
  • Falling oil prices and a potential Iran diplomatic catalyst are easing the inflation narrative that drove yields sharply higher after Wednesday's Fed hike.
  • Market leadership is dangerously narrow — concentrated in semiconductors and hardware — while financials and energy remain under pressure.
  • The continuation scan is chip-heavy (ALAB, Dell, Lumentum) with a standout surprise in Generac on an $8B AI-data-center generator deal with Amazon.
  • Action code is FHP (wait for open to confirm); if it holds, selectively buy quality chip pullbacks, but stand aside on any fade given weak breadth.

Ticker charts

ALAB

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ALAB in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 17, 2026.

DELL

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open DELL in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 17, 2026.

LITE

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open LITE in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 17, 2026.

GNRC

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open GNRC in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 17, 2026.

FLNC

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open FLNC in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 17, 2026.

LEN

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open LEN in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 17, 2026.

INTC

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open INTC in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 17, 2026.

AMD

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open AMD in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 17, 2026.

TSEM

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open TSEM in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 17, 2026.

NVDA

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open NVDA in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 17, 2026.

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