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With a 25bp hike near-certain, this Fed Day episode breaks down why the green futures tape is a relief rally built on retreating oil rather than genuine risk appetite. The team digs into deteriorating market breadth, a hawkish retail sales beat, and the real catalyst of the day — Governor Warsh’s 2:30 PM tone — before laying out a patience-first trading playbook with key continuation and reversal names.
Futures are green ahead of the 2 PM Fed decision, but the analyst flags a Cautious Bearish regime with thin breadth underneath.
A 25bp hike is 92.7% priced in; the real risk is whether Warsh frames it as the start of a tightening cycle at 2:30 PM.
A blowout retail sales report, plus oil's pullback from Tuesday's spike, explains why futures are green despite hawkish undertones.
The 10-year sits near 5.00%, front-end yields have jumped 26bps this week, and traders await housing data and crude inventories.
Only 32.4% of stocks sit above their 40-day average, with bears outnumbering bulls nearly 3-to-1 on the 4% gauge.
Energy and Materials are the lone gainers as gold surges $55.80, signaling the market is hedging inflation risk ahead of the Fed.
Healthcare names like TMO, DHR, and FFIV lead continuation scans, while NEM and HOOD headline a thin reversal list.
Action codes call for a First Hour Pass and patience (COUGAR), with a dovish/hawkish gap-day playbook centered on Warsh's tone.
See TMO in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Daily bars through Sep 16, 2026.
See DHR in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Daily bars through Sep 16, 2026.
See FFIV in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Daily bars through Sep 16, 2026.
See TWLO in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Daily bars through Sep 16, 2026.
See NEM in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Daily bars through Sep 16, 2026.
See HOOD in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Daily bars through Sep 16, 2026.
See LEN in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open LEN in WaveFinder.
Daily bars through Sep 16, 2026.
