The Morning Dose

Morning Dose #337: Hike Odds Rise as Oil and Yields Slam Markets – Thursday 9/10/2026

Episode 3375:55

0:005:55

Episode summary

Oil surges on Iran tanker strikes, 10-year yields hit fresh 2026 highs, and Fed hike odds climb to 62.2% ahead of tomorrow’s CPI print. The hosts break down deteriorating breadth, punished earnings beats, and a tight watchlist of continuation setups for a patience-first trading day.

Chapter by chapter

Bearish Regime and Bull-Bear Skew

Breadth falls to 38% above the 40-day average with bears outnumbering bulls nearly 3-to-1.

Oil Spike and Yield Surge

WTI jumps on Iran tanker strikes while the 10-year hits fresh 2026 highs, hitting gold and copper.

Futures Split and Global Tape

S&P and Nasdaq futures sink while the Dow stays green on defensive and energy tilt.

Calendar Gatekeepers: ECB, PPI, CPI

ECB decision, PPI, jobless claims, and a 30-year reopening set the stage before tomorrow's CPI.

Fed Hike Odds Climb to 62%

FedWatch probability of a hike rises as the new Fed chair pulls back forward guidance.

Breadth Deterioration and Sector Damage

Energy is the lone winner as 10 of 11 sectors close red and small caps take the brunt.

Earnings Beats Get Punished

Cooper Companies and American Eagle both beat estimates but sell off hard on guidance concerns.

Bright Spots: Meta and AVAV

Meta rallies on its Muse AI debut and AVAV pops on a major international order.

Continuation Watchlist

FICO, Meta, HCA, and AVAV highlighted as top continuation candidates with volume and momentum.

Action Codes and Scenario Planning

First Hour Pass strategy with gap-up and gap-down scenarios ahead of tomorrow's CPI print.

Key points

  • Market breadth is deteriorating with only 38% of stocks above their 40-day average and bears outnumbering bulls nearly 3-to-1.
  • Oil's surge on Iran tanker strikes and yields hitting 2026 highs are fueling inflation fears and a Fed hike probability of 62.2%.
  • Earnings beats from Cooper Companies and American Eagle were punished hard, showing the market is grading guidance, not headlines.
  • FICO, Meta, HCA, and AVAV stand out as the strongest continuation setups amid otherwise narrow leadership.
  • The playbook today is patience — let PPI and the ECB clear, then wait for tomorrow's CPI to confirm direction.

Ticker charts

FICO

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open FICO in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 10, 2026.

META

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open META in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 10, 2026.

AVAV

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open AVAV in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 10, 2026.

HCA

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open HCA in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 10, 2026.

COO

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open COO in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 10, 2026.

AEO

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open AEO in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 10, 2026.

LOVE

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open LOVE in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 10, 2026.

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