The Morning Dose

Morning Dose #335: Oil Shock, Fed Shift, and a Semis-Only Market – Tuesday 9/8/2026

Episode 335Sep 8, 20265:08

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0:005:08

Episode summary

A weekend U.S.-Iran strike sends oil to its highest level since June, splitting the Dow and Nasdaq while the Fed’s regime shifts after a blowout jobs report. The team breaks down improving market breadth, a semiconductor-led rally, and the exact trade codes for navigating a cautious, narrow, stock-picker’s market ahead of Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI.

Chapter by chapter

Oil Spike Splits the Market

A weekend U.S.-Iran strike pushes oil to a June high, dragging the Dow down while chip strength keeps the Nasdaq green.

Fed Shockwaves After Jobs Blowout

Payrolls smash expectations, hike odds jump to 60%, and new Fed Chair Warsh's guidance blackout puts PPI and CPI in the spotlight.

Breadth Quietly Improves

Despite the down open, 20-day and 40-day breadth both tick higher, signaling healing beneath the surface.

Semis Lead, Software Lags

Semiconductors post a strong week led by SNDK, MU, COHR, and WDC while software gets hit hard post-earnings.

Scan Results: Narrow and Concentrated

Continuation signals cluster almost entirely in memory and semis, with only one reversal name, OXY, on the list.

Trade Codes: CRT and FHP

The team lays out controlled risk-taking in confirmed leaders and a first-hour-pass approach to let the volatile open settle.

Gap Down vs. Stabilize Scenarios

Clear game plans for both a further oil-driven gap down and a stabilize-or-gap-up scenario heading into Thursday's PPI.

Key points

Oil surged to its highest price since June after a weekend U.S.-Iran strike, hitting cyclicals and the Dow while sparing tech.
A blowout jobs report (162K vs. 45K expected) pushed hike odds to 60%, and new Fed Chair Warsh's pullback from forward guidance means every data print now moves markets hard.
Market breadth is quietly improving even on a down open, with both 20-day and 40-day measures ticking higher.
Semiconductors are the standout leaders (SNDK, MU, COHR, WDC) while software got hit hard after earnings, splitting the market into two distinct stories.
Trade plan: use CRT (controlled risk-taking) in confirmed semi leaders and FHP (first hour pass) to let the oil-driven volatility settle before committing, with Thursday's PPI and Friday's CPI as key pivot points.