The Morning Dose

Morning Dose #334: Hikes Not Cuts: Payrolls Shock Flips the Fed Trade – Monday 9/7/2026

Episode 3346:21

0:006:21

Episode summary

A blowout jobs report has flipped rate-cut expectations into hike odds ahead of Thursday’s critical CPI print, splitting the market into a two-speed tape of surging memory chips and battered software. The hosts break down the macro shock, the sector divergence, and a disciplined playbook of continuation names and a geopolitical hedge for trading into the print.

Chapter by chapter

Payrolls Shock Flips Rate Bets

Nonfarm payrolls triple consensus, sending hike odds sharply higher and upending the rate-cut narrative.

Thursday's CPI Is the Whole Ballgame

CPI and PPI set up as the decisive catalyst, with hawkish Fed dissents and 'sustained inflation' framing in focus.

Semis Surge, Software Sinks

The tape splits into two speeds: memory and storage names rally hard while rate-sensitive software gets crushed.

Breadth Quietly Improves

20-day breadth ticks higher for two straight sessions, though it's not yet a green light, alongside rising Treasury yields and a firmer dollar.

Positioning Ahead of the Print

Two action codes: position ahead of the catalyst, and use sized, controlled risk given the choppy two-speed tape.

Continuation Basket and OXY Hedge

Memory trio SNDK, MU, WDC lead the continuation basket, with OXY as a geopolitical hedge and DOCU as a rare software bright spot.

Gap Up vs Gap Down Scenarios

Scenario planning for Thursday's CPI reaction, from leaning into memory strength to defensive positioning on a gap down.

Key points

  • Payrolls printed +162K vs. 45K expected, flipping market pricing from rate cuts to a possible 25bp hike, with odds jumping to 58.4% overnight.
  • Thursday's CPI print is the key catalyst — a hot number could push hike odds above 60%, with three Fed officials already dissenting hawkish.
  • The market has split into two speeds: semiconductors/memory (SNDK, MU, WDC, COHR) surging while rate-sensitive software (LULU, EGAN, GWRE, ASAN, ZS) gets hit hard, even on earnings beats.
  • Breadth is quietly improving (20-day up to 23% from 19%) but the overall regime remains Cautious, not a green light for aggressive risk-taking.
  • Playbook: position ahead of the CPI catalyst rather than chasing it, keep risk sized and controlled, lean into memory continuation names, and use OXY as an oil/geopolitical hedge.

Ticker charts

SNDK

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SNDK in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 4, 2026.

MU

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MU in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 4, 2026.

WDC

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open WDC in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 4, 2026.

COHR

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open COHR in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 4, 2026.

LULU

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open LULU in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 4, 2026.

EGAN

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open EGAN in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 4, 2026.

GWRE

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open GWRE in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 4, 2026.

ASAN

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ASAN in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 4, 2026.

ZS

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ZS in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 4, 2026.

OXY

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open OXY in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 4, 2026.

DOCU

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open DOCU in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 4, 2026.

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