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A blowout jobs report has flipped rate-cut expectations into hike odds ahead of Thursday’s critical CPI print, splitting the market into a two-speed tape of surging memory chips and battered software. The hosts break down the macro shock, the sector divergence, and a disciplined playbook of continuation names and a geopolitical hedge for trading into the print.
Chapter by chapter
Payrolls Shock Flips Rate Bets
Nonfarm payrolls triple consensus, sending hike odds sharply higher and upending the rate-cut narrative.
Thursday's CPI Is the Whole Ballgame
CPI and PPI set up as the decisive catalyst, with hawkish Fed dissents and 'sustained inflation' framing in focus.
Semis Surge, Software Sinks
The tape splits into two speeds: memory and storage names rally hard while rate-sensitive software gets crushed.
Breadth Quietly Improves
20-day breadth ticks higher for two straight sessions, though it's not yet a green light, alongside rising Treasury yields and a firmer dollar.
Positioning Ahead of the Print
Two action codes: position ahead of the catalyst, and use sized, controlled risk given the choppy two-speed tape.
Continuation Basket and OXY Hedge
Memory trio SNDK, MU, WDC lead the continuation basket, with OXY as a geopolitical hedge and DOCU as a rare software bright spot.
Gap Up vs Gap Down Scenarios
Scenario planning for Thursday's CPI reaction, from leaning into memory strength to defensive positioning on a gap down.
Key points
Payrolls printed +162K vs. 45K expected, flipping market pricing from rate cuts to a possible 25bp hike, with odds jumping to 58.4% overnight.
Thursday's CPI print is the key catalyst — a hot number could push hike odds above 60%, with three Fed officials already dissenting hawkish.
The market has split into two speeds: semiconductors/memory (SNDK, MU, WDC, COHR) surging while rate-sensitive software (LULU, EGAN, GWRE, ASAN, ZS) gets hit hard, even on earnings beats.
Breadth is quietly improving (20-day up to 23% from 19%) but the overall regime remains Cautious, not a green light for aggressive risk-taking.
Playbook: position ahead of the CPI catalyst rather than chasing it, keep risk sized and controlled, lean into memory continuation names, and use OXY as an oil/geopolitical hedge.
See SNDK in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SNDK in WaveFinder.
See MU in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MU in WaveFinder.
See WDC in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open WDC in WaveFinder.
See COHR in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open COHR in WaveFinder.
See LULU in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open LULU in WaveFinder.
See EGAN in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open EGAN in WaveFinder.
See GWRE in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open GWRE in WaveFinder.
See ASAN in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ASAN in WaveFinder.
See ZS in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ZS in WaveFinder.
See OXY in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open OXY in WaveFinder.
See DOCU in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open DOCU in WaveFinder.