The Morning Dose

Morning Dose #333: Oil vs. Yields: Navigating a Split Tape – Thursday 9/3/2026

Episode 3336:09

0:006:09

Episode summary

Crude oil spikes toward $93 on Hormuz tanker escalation while the 10-year yield falls, setting up a tug-of-war across markets. The hosts break down improving-but-unconfirmed breadth, the brutal AI earnings bar exposed by Snowflake and Broadcom, and a controlled-risk playbook centered on materials and internet rotation.

Chapter by chapter

Oil vs Yields: The Tug-of-War

Crude spikes on Hormuz tanker escort news while the 10-year yield falls, pulling stocks in opposite directions.

Split Futures & Today's Calendar

Dow and Nasdaq futures diverge on chip weakness, with ISM Services and jobless claims ahead plus a heavy earnings slate tonight.

Breadth Improves, Bull/Bear Gauge Flips

Stocks above the 40-day average tick up and the Bull 4% count more than doubles, but the 20-day breadth reading stays weak.

Yesterday's Rally: Broad But Soft

Ten of eleven sectors rallied on thin holiday volume, led by materials and communication services, while software and chips lagged.

Snowflake vs Broadcom: Priced for Perfection

Snowflake soars on raised guidance while Broadcom falls despite beating and raising, showing the market's brutal AI monetization bar.

Rotation Playbook: Materials & Internet

Continuation names like STLD, Reddit, Carvana and Five Below lead, while chip reversal signals in ALAB, KLAC and HPE need more proof.

Action Codes and Scenario Planning

Controlled Risk Taking and Think-3-Days-Ahead codes guide gap-up and gap-down scenarios tied to oil, yields, and upcoming catalysts.

Key points

  • Crude oil near $93 on Hormuz tanker escort escalation and falling 10-year yields are pulling stocks in opposite directions, creating a choppy tape.
  • Market breadth is improving (45.81% above 40-day, Bull 4% count more than doubling) but remains unconfirmed with 20-day breadth stuck at 17%.
  • The market is grading earnings on a brutal curve: Snowflake jumped ~24% on raised guidance while Broadcom fell 3.3% despite beating and raising.
  • Confirmed rotation is in materials and internet names (STLD, Reddit, Carvana, Five Below), while chip/hardware reversal signals (ALAB, KLAC, HPE) lack conviction.
  • Recommended approach: Controlled Risk Taking and Think-3-Days-Ahead, positioning for ISM Services, tonight's earnings, and next week's ECB meeting.

Ticker charts

STLD

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open STLD in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 3, 2026.

RDDT

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open RDDT in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 3, 2026.

CHTR

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CHTR in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 3, 2026.

SNOW

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SNOW in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 3, 2026.

AVGO

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open AVGO in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 3, 2026.

CVNA

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CVNA in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 3, 2026.

FIVE

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open FIVE in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 3, 2026.

ALAB

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ALAB in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 3, 2026.

KLAC

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open KLAC in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 3, 2026.

HPE

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open HPE in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Sep 3, 2026.

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