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Inflation data came in hot and September rate-hike odds jumped to 36%, sending futures lower ahead of NVIDIA’s after-the-close earnings. But breadth is quietly improving under the surface, so the playbook today is disciplined engagement, not conviction — lean into continuation names like SMCI and UUUU while letting tonight’s print and a $70B 5-year auction set tomorrow’s real tone.
Chapter by chapter
Cautious Regime Call
Host and analyst set the tone: market is cautious, not bearish or bullish, with 55.79% of stocks above their 40-day average.
Hot PCE and Fed Repricing
Core and headline PCE beat expectations, the GDP deflator was revised sharply higher, and September rate-hike odds jump to 36%.
Global Hawkish Tone
Europe, Japan, and the US all lean hawkish at once, even as durable goods and personal income data stay resilient.
Futures Red, Intuit Crushed
S&P and Nasdaq futures sit well below fair value, with Intuit down 9.4% pre-market despite beating on EPS.
NVIDIA Looms, Breadth Improves
NVIDIA's after-the-close report looms large given tech's 37.9% index weight, while 20-day breadth jumps from 62% to 74% and sector leaders/laggards diverge.
Continuation Scan and Action Codes
17 continuation signals lead with AI-infrastructure and biotech names like SMCI and KYMR, framed by the T3A and CRT action codes.
Gap Scenarios and Bottom Line
Tactical plans for gap-up versus gap-down open, watching the 5-year auction, with a closing call for disciplined, selective trading.
Key points
Regime is cautious, not bearish — 55.79% of stocks remain above their 40-day average despite hot inflation data.
Core PCE and the GDP deflator revision pushed September rate-hike odds to 36%, spooking futures ahead of NVIDIA's earnings.
Breadth is quietly improving under the surface (20-day breadth jumped from 62% to 74%), even as headlines stay defensive.
Continuation setups lean AI-infrastructure and biotech — SMCI, KYMR, SE, and UUUU are the names to watch.
Trade tactically: lean into strength on a gap up, stay selective on a gap down, and let NVIDIA's print and the 5-year auction set tomorrow's tone.
See NVDA in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)
Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open NVDA in WaveFinder.
See INTU in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)
Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open INTU in WaveFinder.
See SMCI in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)
Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SMCI in WaveFinder.
See KYMR in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open KYMR in WaveFinder.
See SE in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)
Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SE in WaveFinder.
See UUUU in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open UUUU in WaveFinder.
See CSCO in WaveFinder. Sign in with your email, and new accounts are free and take about 30 seconds.
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CSCO in WaveFinder.