The Morning Dose

Morning Dose #327: Hot PCE, Hawkish Fed Odds, and NVIDIA’s Big Night – Wednesday 8/26/2026

Episode 3276:04

0:006:04

Episode summary

Inflation data came in hot and September rate-hike odds jumped to 36%, sending futures lower ahead of NVIDIA’s after-the-close earnings. But breadth is quietly improving under the surface, so the playbook today is disciplined engagement, not conviction — lean into continuation names like SMCI and UUUU while letting tonight’s print and a $70B 5-year auction set tomorrow’s real tone.

Chapter by chapter

Cautious Regime Call

Host and analyst set the tone: market is cautious, not bearish or bullish, with 55.79% of stocks above their 40-day average.

Hot PCE and Fed Repricing

Core and headline PCE beat expectations, the GDP deflator was revised sharply higher, and September rate-hike odds jump to 36%.

Global Hawkish Tone

Europe, Japan, and the US all lean hawkish at once, even as durable goods and personal income data stay resilient.

Futures Red, Intuit Crushed

S&P and Nasdaq futures sit well below fair value, with Intuit down 9.4% pre-market despite beating on EPS.

NVIDIA Looms, Breadth Improves

NVIDIA's after-the-close report looms large given tech's 37.9% index weight, while 20-day breadth jumps from 62% to 74% and sector leaders/laggards diverge.

Continuation Scan and Action Codes

17 continuation signals lead with AI-infrastructure and biotech names like SMCI and KYMR, framed by the T3A and CRT action codes.

Gap Scenarios and Bottom Line

Tactical plans for gap-up versus gap-down open, watching the 5-year auction, with a closing call for disciplined, selective trading.

Key points

  • Regime is cautious, not bearish — 55.79% of stocks remain above their 40-day average despite hot inflation data.
  • Core PCE and the GDP deflator revision pushed September rate-hike odds to 36%, spooking futures ahead of NVIDIA's earnings.
  • Breadth is quietly improving under the surface (20-day breadth jumped from 62% to 74%), even as headlines stay defensive.
  • Continuation setups lean AI-infrastructure and biotech — SMCI, KYMR, SE, and UUUU are the names to watch.
  • Trade tactically: lean into strength on a gap up, stay selective on a gap down, and let NVIDIA's print and the 5-year auction set tomorrow's tone.

Ticker charts

NVDA

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open NVDA in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 26, 2026.

INTU

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open INTU in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 26, 2026.

SMCI

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SMCI in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 26, 2026.

KYMR

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open KYMR in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 26, 2026.

SE

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SE in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 26, 2026.

UUUU

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open UUUU in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 26, 2026.

CSCO

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CSCO in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 26, 2026.

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