The Morning Dose

Morning Dose #326: Chips Bleed, Futures Rip: Playing the Rotation Before NVIDIA – Tuesday 8/25/2026

Episode 3265:43

0:005:43

Episode summary

Futures are surging even as semiconductors get crushed, and the hosts break down why breadth is flipping bearish beneath the surface. They map out the rotation into staples and financials, flag GOOGL, GOOG, and VRSN as confirmed leaders, and lay out a Controlled Risk Taking game plan ahead of NVIDIA earnings and Fed Vice Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.

Chapter by chapter

Regime Check: Coin-Flip Breadth

Cautious regime call with 54.43% of stocks above their 40-day average and a sharp bull/bear sentiment flip.

Futures Ripping on Falling Oil and Yields

S&P and Nasdaq futures surge as oil drops on Iran sanctions and the 10-year yield eases on buyback news.

Calendar: Confidence Data and Fed Auction

Case-Shiller, New Home Sales, Consumer Confidence, and a 2-year auction headline today, with NVIDIA and Warsh looming this week.

Sector Split: Staples Up, Semis Slammed

Staples and financials lead while info tech and the SOX index get hammered, revealing a rotation rather than a broad selloff.

NVIDIA Stabilizes, Retail Warning Signs

NVIDIA steadies after seven down days while Dick's Sporting Goods plunges on guidance cuts and mega-cap tech holds firm.

Scans, Action Codes, and Game Plan

Thin continuation scan favors GOOGL, GOOG, and VRSN; CRT and T3A action codes guide gap-up and gap-down scenarios into NVIDIA earnings.

Key points

  • Market breadth is deteriorating fast — the bull/bear gauge flipped from 274/77 to 133/232 in just three sessions.
  • Futures strength is being driven by falling oil (Iran sanctions) and falling yields, not by chip stocks.
  • Monday's tape showed a rotation, not a selloff: staples and financials led while tech and the SOX dropped sharply.
  • Confirmed leaders GOOGL, GOOG, and VRSN stand out on a thin continuation scan, while semis/energy names are seeing washed-out reversals, not breakouts.
  • Today's action codes are CRT (Controlled Risk Taking) and T3A (Think Three Days Ahead) ahead of NVIDIA earnings Wednesday and Warsh's Jackson Hole speech Friday.

Ticker charts

NVDA

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open NVDA in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 25, 2026.

GOOGL

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open GOOGL in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 25, 2026.

GOOG

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open GOOG in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 25, 2026.

VRSN

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open VRSN in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 25, 2026.

LIN

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open LIN in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 25, 2026.

MGTX

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MGTX in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 25, 2026.

SLB

Open in app
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open SLB in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 25, 2026.

COHR

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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open COHR in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 25, 2026.

KLAC

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open KLAC in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 25, 2026.

LRCX

Open in app
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Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open LRCX in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 25, 2026.

DKS

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open DKS in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 25, 2026.

META

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open META in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 25, 2026.

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