The Morning Dose

Morning Dose #325: Red Futures, Quiet Breadth: Trading the 1PM Iran Presser – Monday 8/24/2026

Episode 3255:31

0:005:31

Episode summary

Futures are sharply lower amid Iran sanctions headlines and a collapsed Canada trade deal, but breadth indicators are quietly improving underneath the surface. The team breaks down the pivotal 1 p.m. Bessent presser, cooling oil prices, and a continuation-day playbook featuring MP, PARR, ASTS, and CRWD ahead of Wednesday’s NVDA earnings and PCE data.

Chapter by chapter

Cautious Regime, Red Futures

Opening regime call of 'cautious' with S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq futures deeply red and Asia selling off overnight.

Iran Presser & Hormuz Tanker Flows

Bessent's 1 p.m. sanctions presser framed as an 'economic D-Day,' plus reports of Navy tankers running Hormuz with transponders off.

Canada Trade Talks Collapse

Weekend breakdown in Canada trade talks triggers 50% tariffs on $28B in goods and dollar-for-dollar retaliation effective September 8th.

Breadth Quietly Improving

20-day and 40-day breadth readings both climb, and the 4% bull/bear gauge flips from 108/247 to 274/77 in two sessions.

Oil Cooling Fuels the Flip

WTI drops 2.3% to $85.08 after last week's surge, easing yields and acting as the market's relief valve.

NVDA Caps the Index

NVDA sits flat at 214.67 ahead of Wednesday earnings, capping index upside despite improving breadth.

Continuation Names: MP, PARR, ASTS

A rich 18-signal scan favors continuation trades, but elevated risk profiles on MP and PARR call for tight sizing.

Reversal Plays & Risk Sizing

Thin reversal setups led by CRWD at a manageable 35% risk, with BKNG and DT rounding out the list.

1PM Scenarios & Wednesday Setup

Two scenarios for the Bessent presser and a reminder to save capital for Wednesday's NVDA earnings and PCE double header.

Bottom Line & Closing

Wrap-up: stay selective, respect the 1 p.m. catalyst, and lean into trending names.

Key points

  • Regime is cautious, not bearish — 54.93% of stocks remain above their 40-day average despite red futures.
  • Breadth is quietly strengthening (20-day up to 60%, bull/bear gauge flipping from 108/247 to 274/77 in two sessions).
  • Cooling oil (WTI -2.3%) is easing yields and acting as the market's key relief valve today.
  • NVDA sitting flat at 214.67 is capping index upside ahead of Wednesday's earnings and PCE data.
  • Today is a continuation day — trade trending names like MP, PARR, ASTS, and CRWD with tight risk sizing, and preserve capital for Wednesday.

Ticker charts

MP

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open MP in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 24, 2026.

PARR

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open PARR in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 24, 2026.

ASTS

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open ASTS in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 24, 2026.

CRWD

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open CRWD in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 24, 2026.

BKNG

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open BKNG in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 24, 2026.

DT

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open DT in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 24, 2026.

NVDA

Open in app
SMAUp (filled)Down (hollow)

Use left and right arrows to move through history, plus and minus to zoom, ] and [ to open the next and previous event, Escape to close its card, Enter to open NVDA in WaveFinder.

Daily bars through Aug 24, 2026.

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