Back to Podcast
Power Hour #93 Bearish

Power Hour #93: Breadth Cracks: Triage Before the Bell – Wednesday 8/26/2026

August 26, 2026 4:10
Episode Summary
The Bullish 4% count hides a brutal breadth collapse — 74% of stocks above the 20-day fell to just 20% in a single session. The hosts break down which names to hold, cut, and watch, then set up the one number that decides tomorrow's open.
Key Takeaways
  • Percent above 20SMA cratered to 20% from 74% intraday
  • Bull 4% count gutted from 264 to 96
  • Comm Services and Health Care lead defensive rotation
  • ARGX and DK are the cleanest continuation names
  • Play defense: Always Be in Control into the close
0:00 / 4:10

Regime Check — Where Are We Now?

Regime has flipped defensive since the open — breadth is collapsing fast even as the tape stays technically “Bullish” on the 4% reading.

  • Breadth contracting hard: % Above 20 SMA cratered to 20% from 74% yesterday (-54pp), and % Above 40 SMA slipped to 51.08% from 55.79% (-4.7pp). That’s a violent one-day washout under the surface.
  • Sector rotation into defense: Communication Services (RSPC 3.31, 95th pct) and Health Care (RSPH 3.31, 79th pct) lead, while Industrials (RSPN -0.68, 11th pct) and Utilities (RSPU -1.87, 16th pct) sit at the bottom. Energy (RSPG 2.29) firmed with a +1.35% daily bump.
  • Character: This is a reversal/distribution day — Bull 4% count gutted from 264 to 96 intraday. Index levels for SPY/QQQ/IWM are data unavailable, so lean on breadth, not price levels.

Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP

  • Strongest continuation (2LYNCH): DAVE at $369.21, +5.7% leads the 124-signal continuation list, though RVOL is light at 0.3 and risk is a steep 91.4% — respect it, don’t chase. ARGX at $1,053.26, +3.3% (RVOL 0.9) is the cleaner, better-financed mover.
  • Strongest reversal setup: BBWI popped +7.2% to $18.84 on RVOL 2.2 — highest-conviction reversal by volume. SCHW at $109.46 is -2.5% on RVOL 1.8, a reversal that hasn’t confirmed; NCI (-7.0%, RVOL 3.1) is a knife, avoid.
  • SIP leaders: Energy/refiner DK ($67.55, +1.4% from open, sentiment +1) is holding on refiner-margin strength; RBRK ($92.68) got a target raise but is -5.32% from open — bullish note, bearish tape, a fade. SAP was downgraded to neutral ($216.93) and CHWY got a Morgan Stanley target cut — treat both as headwinds.
  • Most relevant action code: ABC (Always Be in Control) — with the 20SMA breadth halving-plus in a day, capital preservation trumps aggression. Secondary: FFM (Find Free Money) only on names with ≤2.5% risk like AKRE (31.6%) or BDX (34.3%).

Closing Playbook — What To Do Now

  • Trim/close into the bell: Weak-breadth extended longs and confirmed downside reversals — SCHW below $109.46, NCI, and RBRK fading off its target-raise (-5.32% from open) are exit-or-avoid candidates. Take profits on any Industrials/Utilities exposure given RSPN and RSPU at the sector-strength floor.
  • Enter only on confirmation: If ARGX holds above $1,053 into the close on rising volume, it’s a valid 2LYNCH continuation; DK over $67.55 keeps the energy/refiner theme alive. Keep size small — breadth does not support broad longs.
  • Key level: SPY level is data unavailable, so use breadth as the gauge — a close with % Above 20 SMA holding near 20% signals oversold-bounce potential tomorrow; a further drop confirms a deeper pullback and says stay defensive.

Tomorrow’s Early Look

  • Catalyst to watch: Energy is the swing factor — TNK slipped to $90.13 on an oil decline while refiner DK rose on margins; watch crude for the next open. SAP and CHWY analyst actions may bleed into software/retail sentiment.
  • Setup forming: ARGX above $1,053.26 and DK above $67.55 are the cleanest continuation candidates; BBWI needs to hold $18.84 to keep its reversal intact.
  • Regime outlook: Today’s -54pp collapse in 20SMA breadth flips the near-term plan to defense — favor Comm Services and Health Care leadership, keep risk tight, and demand confirmation before adding. If breadth stabilizes tomorrow, an oversold bounce is on the table.
Share:

Find momentum stocks in milliseconds

Try WaveFinder