Closing SA — 2026-08-26

Situation Awareness: Cautious. Stocks finished little changed Wednesday, recovering from afternoon lows as the S&P 500 closed flat at 7675.70 (-0.02%), the Nasdaq slipped to 26151.24 (-0.08%), and the Dow eased to 53463.88 (-0.21%) — all in a holding pattern ahead of NVIDIA’s (NVDA 209.95, -1.46%) earnings released after today’s close. SPY/QQQ/IWM index-level prices and SMA levels are unavailable in today’s data, so use the major-average readings above for context. Trade mode for tomorrow: selective and defensive — let NVDA’s post-close reaction set the semiconductor tone before committing. The defining context was a muted PCE print (headline 3.7%, core 3.3%, both unchanged from June) that did little to move rate odds, leaving the tape range-bound and event-driven. Regime context — 51.48% of stocks closed above their 40-day SMA (vs 55.8% prior day, regime held at Cautious), and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 74 bulls vs. 56 bears. The 5-day trend is choppy and indecisive, with the major averages essentially flat and breadth softening beneath the surface.

SIP: DKS ANF META MRNA

• What’s working: Continuation (2LYNCH) fired 22 signals, D9M 8 signals, Reversal Bullish just 3 — trend-following breadth thinning as breakouts concentrate in energy and medical names.
• Leading sectors: Energy +0.57%, Technology +0.28%, Utilities +0.04%; leading themes: Pipeline +2.31%, Telecom Consumer Products +2.18%, Enterprise Software +2.05%.
• Key event: NVIDIA reported after the close — the single most consequential catalyst that will set semiconductor and broad-tech direction for Thursday.
• Regime threading: morning SA called Cautious (55.8%), closing is Cautious (51.5%) — regime held as breadth drifted lower but stayed mid-range.
• DEP watchlist: ALAB $290.54, ARM $251.19, CRWD $189.51, SHLS $7.31, CRM $205.75.
• SIPS: DINO $96.51, ITT $210.52, LSCC $119.40 as continuation swing candidates for tomorrow.