Regime Check — Where Are We Now?
Breadth is expanding sharply into the close — sentiment flipped bullish, but note SPY/QQQ/IWM index prices are data unavailable today, so we lean entirely on internals.
- Breadth is expanding fast: stocks above the 20 SMA jumped to 58% from 36% yesterday (+22pp), while above 40 SMA nudged up to 24.07% from 23.13% (+0.9pp).
- Sector rotation is real: Technology (RSPT) is the standout at 0.61 and 95th percentile, up 2.1% on the day, while Utilities (RSPU) at -3.52 and Industrials (RSPN) at -2.05 anchor the bottom.
- Character is a trending recovery day — the short-term breadth thrust (+22pp on the 20 SMA) says buyers stepped in, but the still-low 40 SMA at 24% warns the bigger trend hasn’t confirmed.
Strategy Signals — Continuation, Reversal & SIP
- Strongest continuation (2LYNCH): A leads at $162.58, +3.9%, though RVOL is light at 0.6; for volume conviction, FFIV at $447.59 (+3.6%, RVOL 1.4) is the cleaner breakout with institutional sponsorship.
- Software cluster is firing — ZS $204.85 (+3.8%), FTNT $174.62 (+2.8%), QLYS $179.80 (+2.8%) and cyber ETF HACK $122.29 (+3.0%) all confirm the tech leadership from the ATR data.
- Strongest reversal setup: JILL at $23.66 with a massive RVOL 7.7 despite being -1.2% — watch for a reclaim; NOC $526.52 (RVOL 2.0) and defense names show quiet accumulation.
- SIP leaders are mixed: DLR $182.08 got a fresh buy-rating initiation, KGS $58.67 landed a new power agreement, but EQNR $44.10 is failing as crude slips on Iran speculation — Energy (RSPG) sits at 0th percentile.
- Most relevant action code today: PLASTICS (Sector Winners) — ride the Tech/Software leadership; pair with 2LYNCH continuation entries on the FFIV/ZS/FTNT complex.
Closing Playbook — What To Do Now
- Trim/close Energy and Utilities exposure into the bell — RSPG at -0.24 (0th pct, -1.32% today) and RSPU at -3.52 (0th pct) are broken; EQNR‘s failure on Iran headlines is your exit trigger.
- Enter on confirmation: FFIV is the highest-quality continuation with real volume (RVOL 1.4) — take it if it holds green into the last 30 minutes; keep risk tight given ATR%-M of 3.3.
- Key level caveat — with index data unavailable, do not fade or chase on assumed SPY levels; let breadth (58% above 20 SMA) guide sizing and size down until index prices confirm.
Tomorrow’s Early Look
- Overnight catalyst: crude/Iran headlines — watch Energy names like EQNR and KGS for follow-through; a further oil slide keeps RSPG pinned at the bottom.
- Setup forming: ZS at $204.85 — a clean push above today’s high with RVOL improving would extend the software leadership; also stalk JILL above $23.66 given that outsized RVOL 7.7.
- Regime outlook: today’s +22pp breadth thrust is constructive, but the 40 SMA still at 24% means this is early-stage — stay in Tech/Software, avoid defensives, and demand index-price confirmation before adding risk tomorrow.