Midday Wave #113: Breadth Diverges: Tech Surges, Confirmation Waits – Monday 9/21/2026

Welcome to WaveRider mid-day wave, your mid-session market intelligence. Let's dive in. The index tape is dark today, no SPY, no QQQ, so how do we read this market? We go straight to breadth. And breadth just sent a mixed signal, right? A really mixed one. So, okay, the 40-day breadth, the intermediate trend, it's basically frozen. 23.74% up just 0.6% from 23.13% yesterday. Barely a twitch. Barely, but the 20-day, that thing exploded, 56% up from 36%, a 20-point jump in one session. Wait, 20 points in a day? In a day, that's a sharp, short-term thrust. So, the sprinters out of the blocks, but the marathon pace hasn't moved. That's exactly it. But early stage, not confirmed. And sentiment. Split too. The 4% reading flips bullish, but the 40-day sentiment stays neutral, constructive but unconfirmed. Mm-hmm. Any leadership change under the hood? Big one. Technology flipped hard. RSPT reads 0.62 now, 90-second percentile, up almost 2% on the day. Oh, wow. And energy? Energy's fading. Down 209, unwinding that late August run, it's a clean rotation, out of energy, into tech. Okay. So, if tech's carrying the tape, who's actually holding on it? Software and cybersecurity. ZS is your leader, 204.83, up 3.8% on the day. There it is. But here's the catch. Our vols only 0.3. 0.3, so the price is leading, the volume isn't there. Exactly the thing. It's a crowd cheering loud, but only a few people actually showed up. Huh. And the rest of the group? Following through, Fort Ned up to 7, Qualis to 8, H-A-C-K to 7, 57 live continuation signals. 57, that's wide. Wide, yeah. But thin. R-Vol across the whole board sits between 0.2 and 0.7. So strength without conviction. That's the whole story today. Okay, so what about the movers, anything clean? One name stands out, M-S-T-R. The Bitcoin play. The Bitcoin play, 153.92, up almost 13% from the open, and R-Vol's 2.0, real volume behind it. Finally, some actual participation. Finally, that's your clean momentum stand out. And the flip side, anything faking it? Okay, T-A and USAR, both carrying bullish tags, both fading. Okay, T-A, down 391 from the open, you saw it down 321. So same tag as the winners. Opposite outcome, right. Chasing those is jumping on the train after it's left the platform. The bullish tags, the ticket stub, not the ride. I'm stealing that. One more though, O-P-T-X holding green at 6.79 R-Vol 2.74 on a contract catalyst. Oh, that one's got volume. That one's real. But here's what bugs me. The 20% study list skewed towards ETFs today, names like ZCHS, P-U-R, not single stocks. Huh, so even the institutional signal is not clean. Not clean? Same unconfirmed theme, top to bottom. Okay, so bottom line, what changes from the morning plan? Honestly, not much should. Stay in ABC, always be in control. The bias is constructive, but you don't press new longs without volume. So what's the gate? Confirmation, CRT, volume expansion before you add size, full stop. And the levels? Two of them. ZS at 204.83 holds with R-Vol expansion, software leadership's confirmed. Loses it, thesis drops. And MSTR? MSTR at 153.92. Follow through versus fade tells you if the Bitcoin bid actually sticks. And until that 40-day breath turns? Size stays disciplined. It's still stuck at 23.74. That's the tell. So there it is, short-term breath is surging, but the intermediate trend hasn't confirmed. Trade the strength you see, size only what volume validates. Watch those two levels into the close. ZS at 204.83, MSTR at 153.92. Stay in control until confirmation arrives. That's the mid-day wave. That's all for today's episode of Wave Rider mid-day wave. Your mid-session market intelligence. See you next time.