Next Day Prep #329: Distribution Disguised as a Do-Nothing Day – Thursday 9/24/2026

Welcome to WaveRider next day prep review today prepare tomorrow. Let's dive in Yes and P in NASDAQ closed flat today. So why did the climbers beat advanceers almost two to one? Let's find out what a flat close was actually hiding Honestly, this is a good one. Mm-hmm. Okay, so morning call what was the regime read? Bearish we had 20.7% of stocks above their 40 day and it held right into the close at 20.11%. So the call was confirmed. Not just repeated. Yeah. Right. But here's what gets me. The indexes look totally boring. Right. S&P flat, NASDAQ flat, Dow down three tenths, Russell off a tenth, midcaps down four tenths. Sounds like nothing. Nothing happened. Yeah. And that's the trap. Underneath. Decliners beat advanceers nearly two to one on the NYSC. Roughly three to two on the NASDAQ. Yeah. Wait. So the tape was actually deeply read. Yeah. The 20 day breath cratered from 82% to 36% in a single session. I mean whoa in one day. One day. That's violent short term deterioration the headline completely missed. Oh wow. It's like a patient with a normal temperature but a racing pulse. So basically exactly that. The bulls versus bears gauge told the same story. 113 bulls, 180 bears. So give me the one liner. Distribution disguised as a do nothing day. Oh that's the sound bite right there. Honestly that's the whole session. Right. Okay. So if breath was that ugly, where did signals actually work? So the busiest strand was Jarvis box, 44 signals and they clustered hard in healthcare and biotech. Meaning the scan found where the momentum was hiding. Like beautiful. It lines up perfectly. Moderna up 6.98% to 194.82. Lily up 2.85% to 1183.79. And that drove the sector. Health meta. Talk to me about meta. Here's the thing. This is the part that matters. Meta surged 4.50% to 77.59. Up 36% since September. That's a monster. And single-handedly it lifted communication services up 1.9%. Wait one stock lifted the whole sector. One stock and here's the thing. That's a red flag. Not a green light. Yeah totally. Why? I mean it's strength isn't it? One player scoring every point in the game. Impressive, sure but the rest of the team didn't show up. Huh. I didn't do it that way. And the continuation scans confirm it. 2LY fired 17 signals. The rest were much lighter. So the strength was narrow. Narrow and concentrated. Then you had the story stocks. Like ever pure? Ever pure. Tick or P. Up 11.11% to a record 121.83 on a bullish outlook. They're guiding 39 to 45% revenue growth. Wow. That's episodic though. I mean totally episodic. Not systemic. Same with the downside. Oracle down 3.48% on a force measure notice and MGM. What happened MGM? Down 11.02% after a buyout it got withdrawn. Pure headline risk. Right. So in a low conviction tape. Single headlines dominate. Exactly. That's the whole character of the day. Okay so narrow leadership is the lesson. How does that shape tomorrow? Start with earnings. Darden came in in line. Same restaurant sales up 3.1%. Steady. Boring. No surprise. And Blackberry? So basically beat by 3 cents raised full year guidance. But a soft Q3 licensing guide of $6 million kept shares flat. I mean one week metric offset the whole beat. Like acing the exam and stumbling on the final question. Costco reported after the close. Still pending. What date are we watching? Durable orders. Consensus flat at 0.0% and Michigan sentiment at 47.5%. Those are the checks. Give me levels. NBIS first. NBIS at 243.43. Break above supply at 244.09 with relative volume over 1.3 targets 2.99 support around 231. RVOL is the speed check. That's the trigger. Don't commit without it. Right. And meta. Proven leader. Bible on a shallow low volume pullback. Not a falling knife. mRNA. Darvus breakout. But the risk is wide. 109%. So size down. Use the prior day low as your stop. Okay. Scenarios. Bull case. Yields retreat from 5.18% and oil stays below the mid 90s. That could broaden breath back above the 20 day. Yeah. And the bear. The bear case. Yeah. Yields push above 5.25 to 5.30% or oil retakes 96. That pressures growth all over again. So the forecast tomorrow. Bearish. Breath stalled near 20%. It takes a durable yield retreat. Not just an oil headline to shift the tone. That's the key. Watch the yield. Not just the oil. Watch the 10 year first. Everything else follows. So there it is. A flat close hit a bearish session. When breath collapses and leadership narrows to a handful of names, trade selectively and trust confirmed leaders. Not headlines. Watch durable goods, sentiment, and that 10 year yield tomorrow. Thanks for writing with us. That's all for today's episode of Wave Rider Next Day Prep. Review today. Prepare tomorrow. See you next time.