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Market Awareness

Situation Awareness — 2026-11-13

By WaveRider AI1 min read

Situation Awareness: Cautious. The tape is caught between a leadership shock in AI hardware and a bond market pricing in a more aggressive Fed. SPY ($757.12) sits below its SMA20 ($759.16) and SMA50 ($764.48) but holds above its SMA200 ($731.93). QQQ ($688.17) is well below its SMA50 ($718.03) and only modestly above its SMA200 ($682.28). Trade mode: selective and defensive, with smaller size until the PPI print and the rates reaction settle. Today’s context is set by October PPI at 8:30 ET after this week’s hot CPI, a 10-year yield at 5.15%, the dollar index at its highest level since April 2025, WTI near $88.50 on Iran uncertainty, and next week’s Trump-Xi summit. Regime context: 56.03% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 113 bulls vs. 502 bears. The short-term trend is an up-one-day, down-the-next whipsaw. Wednesday’s rally (391 bulls vs. 127 bears) reversed sharply on Thursday, and the 40-SMA reading fell 3.9 points, so downside momentum currently has the upper hand.

SIP: TLN CEG XNDU APT

  • What’s working: very little. Continuation/2LYNCH produced only 4 signals and Reversal 3, while Delayed 9M is empty. Bear 9M (32) dwarfs Bull 9M (5).
  • Leading sectors: WaveFinder trending sector and theme data are unavailable (market closed), and the Sector Volatility ATR feed returned no data. In Thursday’s session, Energy (+1.5%) and Communication Services (+0.4%) were the only sectors to close higher. Materials (-1.5%) and Industrials (-0.9%) lagged.
  • Key event: October PPI and Core PPI at 8:30 ET. The market will read them against rising odds of a 50-basis-point December rate hike.
  • Market read: Thursday’s failed rebound at the S&P 500’s 50-day moving average (7671) and the Russell 2000’s -1.7% drop show sellers in control of rallies. Today’s modestly higher futures need follow-through after PPI to mean anything.
  • DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today. The scan is dry.
  • SIPS: SNPS, ETN, SCCO