Market Summary

U.S. equity futures point to a modestly higher open Friday, November 13, after a volatile Thursday session. As of 7:59 ET, S&P 500 futures are 21 points above fair value and Nasdaq futures are 8 points above. On Thursday, the S&P 500 fell 26.98 points (-0.4%) to 7,592.47, the Nasdaq Composite lost 100.10 points (-0.4%) to 25,386.47, and the Dow dropped 189.40 points (-0.4%) to 52,297.30. The Russell 2000 underperformed at -1.7%. The S&P 500 briefly made a run at its 50-day moving average (7,671) before renewed selling pushed it lower.

The dominant theme was the leadership shock at NVIDIA. CEO Jensen Huang resigned after a New York Times report about a second extramarital affair, this time involving a company employee. NVDA opened down more than 14%, a level not seen since July 2025, but recovered much of the loss to close at 166.19 (-7.54, -4.34%). CFO Colette Kress is interim CEO while the board searches for a permanent replacement. The AI trade did not fall uniformly: AMD (+5.86%) and Broadcom (+5.54%) attracted buyers as potential beneficiaries, and Alphabet (+1.62%) benefited from its in-house TPU platform. Rate and oil pressures broadened the concern beyond one stock. Treasury yields rose sharply on growing expectations of a 50-basis-point Fed rate hike in December, and WTI crude rose 2.8% to $88.79.

For sector rotation, only energy (+1.5%) and communication services (+0.4%) finished higher Thursday. Materials (-1.5%), industrials (-0.9%), financials (-0.7%) and health care (-0.7%) posted the wider losses, while technology (-0.4%) finished near the middle of the pack. Today’s pre-market focus is the October PPI at 8:30 ET, which follows this week’s stronger-than-expected consumer inflation report. Earnings from Cisco, Applied Materials and Cerebras are also driving individual stocks.

Market Snapshot

Thursday, Nov 12 close

S&P 500: 7,592.47, -26.98 (-0.4%)
Nasdaq Composite: 25,386.47, -100.10 (-0.4%)
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 52,297.30, -189.40 (-0.4%)
Russell 2000: -1.7%

Year-to-date

Russell 2000: +12.8%
S&P Midcap 400: +11.5%
S&P 500: +10.9%
Nasdaq Composite: +9.1%
Dow: +8.8%

Pre-market futures (Friday)

7:59 ET: S&P +21.00 vs. fair value; Nasdaq +8.00
6:03 ET: S&P +19.00; Nasdaq +30.00

WaveFinder breadth (Nov 13)

Primary sentiment: Very Bearish
Primary bulls: 725; bears: 1,148
4% sentiment: Neutral (0 bulls, 0 bears)
40 SMA sentiment: Neutral
Above 20 SMA: 55.33%
Above 40 SMA: 57.41%
9M bulls/bears: 0/0; 9M bull follow-through: 0%

Sector Performance

Thursday performance (Briefing.com), ranked
1. Energy: +1.5%
2. Communication Services: +0.4%
3. Technology: -0.4%
4. Financials: -0.7%
5. Health Care: -0.7%
6. Industrials: -0.9%
7. Materials: -1.5%

Performance figures were not provided for Consumer Discretionary, Consumer Staples, Utilities or Real Estate, so they are not ranked.

WaveFinder sector ATR (volatility), as reported

Technology: -1.61% (rising, P68)
Consumer Discretionary: 1.53% (flat, P58)
Communication Services: 0.90% (rising, P89)
Financials: 0.37% (rising, P79)
Industrials: 0.38% (flat, P84)
Health Care: 1.92% (flat, P21)
Energy: -0.61% (flat, P32)
Consumer Staples: 2.37% (flat, P58)
Materials: 0.84% (falling, P37)
Utilities: 3.12% (flat, P68)
Real Estate: 1.36% (rising, P74)

Communication Services has the highest percentile reading (P89) and Industrials (P84) and Financials (P79) are also elevated. Health Care (P21) is the lowest.

Key Earnings & Movers

Pre-market, Friday

Modine Manufacturing (MOD) 142.02, +35.92 (+33.9%): reportedly in discussions to be acquired by Samsung.
Cerebras Systems (CBRS) 110.34, +12.59 (+12.9%): Q4 revenue guidance above expectations. It expects to triple revenue in 2027 (after-hours Thursday: +15.8%).
Cisco (CSCO) 98.30, -3.71 (-3.6%): topped fiscal Q1 earnings and revenue estimates and issued above-consensus Q2 guidance. It also raised its fiscal 2027 outlook. The reported EPS beat was $0.07. Shares were -0.4% after hours Thursday.
Applied Materials (AMAT) 378.00, -2.95 (-0.8%): beat Q4 EPS by $0.10 and beat on revenue. Q1 EPS and revenue guidance are in line.
Tesla (TSLA) 399.57, +2.11 (+0.5%) and SpaceX (SPCX) 140.23, +0.29 (+0.2%): Bloomberg reports merger talks are progressing.

Thursday regular session

NVIDIA (NVDA) 166.19, -7.54 (-4.34%): Huang resigned (see above).
AMD 585.30, +32.40 (+5.86%)
Broadcom (AVGO) 364.36, +19.14 (+5.54%)
Alphabet (GOOG) 295.35, +4.72 (+1.62%)

After-hours Thursday

KinderCare (KLC): -24.8%. Missed by $0.03 and guided FY26 EPS below consensus.
Flowers Foods (FLO): -10.0%. Missed by $0.05 and guided FY26 EPS below consensus.
LifeMD (LFMD): -9.4%. Missed on revenue and issued downside Q4 revenue guidance.
Once Upon a Farm (OFRM): -6.7%. Guided FY26 revenue below consensus.
Heartflow (HTFL): -2.8%, despite a beat and a raised FY26 revenue guide.
dLocal (DLO): -2.7%. Missed on revenue.
Gemini Space Station (GEMI): +3.4%. Beat by $0.12 but missed on revenue.
Andersen Group (ANDG): -0.2%. Missed by $1.64 but guided FY27 revenue above consensus.
Anthropic (ANT): Bloomberg reports its IPO is roughly 6x oversubscribed.

Other pre-market AI-related moves (Thursday morning)

CoreWeave (CRWV): -13% pre-market on a report that it is seeking a $4 billion investment-grade loan.
Nebius (NBIS): -17% pre-market on higher capex and weaker guidance.

Stock Spotlight

Nebius Group (NBIS) was one of the sharpest decliners in the AI infrastructure group. The company’s Q3 results beat expectations. It reported a GAAP loss of $0.13/share, and revenue rose 571.3% yr/yr and 68.4% sequentially to $980.8 million. Adjusted EBITDA nearly doubled sequentially to $465.8 million, with the group margin expanding to 47.5% from 40.6%. Management said it signed over $12 billion in new contract value since the start of Q3, and GPU-hour pricing on new deals rose more than 20% sequentially.

The market focused on the guidance and financing picture. Nebius now expects FY26 revenue at the low end of its $3.0-3.4 billion range and pushed back its $7 billion ARR target. It now expects to exceed $7 billion in February 2027, after September ARR of $6.4 billion. Delays at third-party colocation facilities pushed capacity, including part of the capacity contracted with Microsoft at its New Jersey site, into 2027. The company raised its FY26 capex outlook to about $27 billion from $20-25 billion, and forecast $40-45 billion in FY27. Q3 interest expense was $112.5 million and operating cash flow was negative $273 million. Management expects customer prepayments and asset-backed financing to cover 75-85% of FY27 capex, and prepayments on new Q3 agreements covered more than 100% of associated capex, up from 50-60% in Q2. The Briefing.com note said the shares had more than given back the gains from CoreWeave’s results the day before, with NVIDIA’s CEO resignation adding pressure.

Bond Market & Treasuries

Friday morning yields (8:05 ET)

2-yr: 4.87% (-1 bp)
3-yr: 4.93% (+2 bps)
5-yr: 4.98% (+3 bps)
10-yr: 5.15% (+5 bps; 5.146%)
30-yr: 5.48% (+5 bps)

Thursday close

2-yr: 4.88% (+14 bps), eight basis points shy of its 2026 high from September
10-yr: 5.10% (+12 bps), back above its 50-day moving average (5.051%)

Treasuries sold off heavily Thursday after the midweek closure. Expectations for a 50-basis-point December rate hike climbed above 15%. That probability receded somewhat Friday morning after New York Fed President Williams said the Fed has more work to do but has time to gather information, and that longer-term inflation expectations remain anchored. He also said the Fed must avoid undue harm to the employment side of its mandate.

The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.1% at 103.30, its highest level since April 2025. USD/JPY is 160.03, EUR/USD is 1.1051, GBP/USD is 1.3227 (-0.1%) and USD/CNH is 6.6741. Other bond-market news:

Germany plans to borrow more than EUR200 billion in 2027, the second-highest annual total since World War II.
Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi is reportedly leaning against a tax increase to fund defense.
France’s Macron and Germany’s Merz favor Pablo Hernandez de Cos as the next ECB president.

Commodities

Thursday settle (Briefing.com)

Crude oil: +2.39 to $88.79 (+2.8%)
Natural gas: +0.13 to $3.34
Gold: -113.60 to $3,886.30
Silver: -1.92 to $50.08
Copper: -0.09 to $6.20

Friday pre-market

WTI crude: -0.2% to $88.55/bbl
Gold: +0.2% to $3,894.10/oz
Copper: -0.6% to $6.159/lb

Energy stocks led Thursday on firmer crude, amid competing speculation about a diplomatic solution to the Iran conflict or additional military action. Thursday’s EIA crude inventories were +4.657 million barrels (prior -0.865 million).

Overseas Markets

Asia (Friday)

Nikkei: +0.5% (61,142.35, +323.00)
Hang Seng: -1.6% (23,637.6, -371.00)
Shanghai Composite: -0.6%
Sensex: -0.4%
Kospi: -1.0%
Australia All Ordinaries: -0.8%

Japan bucked the regional weakness as technology stocks recovered from the prior week’s selloff. China and Hong Kong fell on technology concerns. Nikkei reported that uncertainty over NVIDIA’s leadership transition and possible tighter U.S. tech restrictions weighed on sentiment ahead of next week’s Trump-Xi summit. Investors were also cautious ahead of U.S. PPI.

Europe (Friday)

STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%
DAX: 0.0%
FTSE 100: +0.1%
CAC 40: -0.1%
FTSE MIB: +0.1%
IBEX 35: +0.1%

European markets traded mixed as higher oil prices, elevated bond yields and inflation concerns offset support from energy shares and earnings. Energy stocks benefited from firmer crude, while luxury, mining and defense names were weak. Reports that the German government could acquire stakes in Urenco supported E.ON and RWE.

Economic Data

Today

October PPI (8:30 ET): prior 1.3%.
October Core PPI (8:30 ET): prior 0.7%.
EIA Natural Gas Inventories (10:30 ET): prior +77 bcf.
The sources differ on consensus. Briefing.com’s stock market update shows 0.4% for PPI and 0.3% for core. The bond market update shows 0.3% and 0.2%. Either way, a reading well above the 1.3% and 0.7% priors would be watched for its implications for Fed policy.

Thursday’s releases

Initial jobless claims: 200K vs. 195K consensus (prior revised to 191K from 189K)
Continuing claims: 1.697 million (prior 1.718 million)
October existing home sales: 3.75M vs. 3.94M consensus (prior revised to 3.97M)
October Treasury budget: -$404.0B vs. -$300.0B consensus

Overnight international data

China October new loans: CNY-100.0B (expected CNY80.0B; prior CNY1,080.0B)
China total social financing: CNY1,150.0B (expected CNY1,420.0B)
China M2: +7.1% yr/yr (expected +7.2%)
China loan growth: +4.7% yr/yr (expected +4.8%)
Hong Kong Q3 GDP: +1.9% q/q, +5.2% y/y (both in line)
Eurozone Q3 GDP: +0.4% q/q (in line, prior +0.6%), +1.3% y/y
Eurozone September trade balance: EUR-10.3B (expected EUR-4.5B)
Germany October WPI: +0.4% m/m, +8.8% y/y
France October CPI: +0.4% m/m, +3.4% y/y
France HICP: +3.7% y/y (expected +3.8%)
Spain October CPI: +0.6% m/m, +4.9% y/y
Switzerland October PPI: +0.9% m/m (expected +0.2%)
Italy September trade balance: EUR2.083B (expected EUR2.840B)

Macro backdrop (Nov 6 Big Picture)

September total CPI: +3.7% y/y; core CPI: +2.6%.
PCE: 3.6% overall and 3.1% excluding food and energy.
Personal savings rate: 3.8%, near a 15-year low.
Democrats won the midterms, which Briefing.com attributed largely to cost-of-living frustration.

Looking Ahead

Today: October PPI and core PPI at 8:30 ET, followed by EIA natural gas inventories at 10:30 ET. Cisco, Applied Materials and Cerebras earnings reactions will continue to drive trading.
Fed expectations: The market is weighing the odds of a December 50-basis-point hike, with Treasury yields near multi-week highs. The 2-yr is eight basis points below its 2026 high.
NVIDIA: The board’s CEO search and the effect on AI infrastructure names remain in focus.
Next week: The Trump-Xi summit, with attention on possible tighter U.S. technology restrictions.
Geopolitics and oil: Developments in the Iran conflict, with WTI near $88.50.
Deal flow: Samsung’s reported talks to acquire Modine, the progress of Tesla-SpaceX merger talks, and Anthropic’s IPO, reported as roughly 6x oversubscribed.