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Market Awareness

Situation Awareness — 2026-11-11

By WaveRider AI2 min read

Situation Awareness: Cautious. Two forces are pulling against each other this morning. Rate shock is the first: hotter-than-expected October CPI, a weak 10-year auction, and Fed hike talk pushed the 2-year to 4.74% and the 10-year to 4.98%. The AI infrastructure rebound is the second, sparked overnight by CoreWeave’s beat-and-raise and TSMC’s capex hike. SPY at $749.92 sits below its SMA20 ($759.70) and SMA50 ($764.77) but above its SMA200 ($731.26). QQQ at $674.76 is below all three moving averages, including the SMA200 at $681.63. IWM at $280.58 is holding above its SMA20 and SMA200 and pressing its SMA50 ($281.38). Trade mode: selective and defensive. Treat the gap-up as something to prove, not a signal to chase. The Treasury market is closed for Veterans Day while the NYSE trades normally, so Fed commentary and AI headlines will drive the tape without live bond pricing. Regime context: 58.55% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 150 bulls vs. 309 bears. The recent trend is choppy and has turned down. Monday’s broad rebound (748 bulls vs. 126 bears) reversed on Tuesday, and the share of stocks above the 40 SMA slipped from 60.27% to 58.55%, so breadth is contracting rather than recovering.

SIP: APT TMCI GILT

  • What’s working: the Continuation/2LYNCH scan produced 7 signals, tilted toward insurance, finance, and software defensives. The Reversal scan produced 3 signals in finance and telecom. Delayed 9M produced none.
  • Leading sectors and themes: no data. Trending Sectors and Trending Themes show market closed, and the Sector Volatility (ATR) feed returned empty. Tuesday’s narrative leaders were financials and consumer discretionary, each up 0.5%.
  • Key event: the bond market is closed, leaving Fed speakers and AI capex headlines as the only scheduled catalysts. A $25 bln 30-year auction follows Thursday.
  • Market read: Tuesday absorbed a real rate shock and closed well off the lows. The equal-weighted S&P 500 finished flat while mega-cap tech dragged, so the damage was narrow. Today’s AI bounce has to show it can broaden beyond semiconductors.
  • DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today, so there is no qualified DEP watchlist.
  • SIPS: CME, PGR, AKAM