Market Summary

U.S. equity futures point to a higher open on Wednesday, November 11, led by a rebound in the AI trade. As of 07:58 ET, S&P futures sit +67.00 vs. fair value and Nasdaq futures +540.00, with Nasdaq 100 futures trading nearly 2.0% above fair value. CoreWeave (CRWV 56.73, +16.42%) is the catalyst after topping Q3 revenue expectations and raising its FY26 revenue and capex guidance. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee, a non-voter, called October CPI “borderline disturbing,” keeping rate-policy scrutiny in focus.

Tuesday’s session closed lower but well off the lows. The Dow fell 157.86 to 52,232.10, the Nasdaq lost 187.26 to 25,086.26, and the S&P 500 dropped 29.01 to 7,521.00. The Nasdaq was down 1.7% at its low before finishing -0.7%, and the S&P 500 (-0.4%) recovered from an early-afternoon decline of 1.1%. The equal-weighted S&P 500 finished flat, so the weakness was concentrated in mega-cap growth. Information technology fell 1.4%, while financials and consumer discretionary each gained 0.5%.

The rate backdrop remains the dominant theme. A hotter-than-expected October CPI (total +0.4% m/m vs. 0.3% consensus; core +0.3% vs. 0.2%) fully priced in a 25 bp December hike to 4.00-4.25%, with a 65% probability of another 25 bp in January. Treasury markets are closed today for Veterans Day, so Fed commentary and corporate news are the main drivers. WaveFinder’s primary breadth sentiment is Bearish.

Market Snapshot

Prior close (Nov 10):

Dow: 52,232.10 (-157.86)
Nasdaq Composite: 25,086.26 (-187.26, -0.7%)
S&P 500: 7,521.00 (-29.01, -0.4%)
Russell 2000: -0.6%

Pre-market futures (07:58 ET): S&P +67.00 vs. fair value; Nasdaq +540.00 vs. fair value (06:05 ET readings: +60.00 and +480.00).

YTD performance: Russell 2000 +13.8%, S&P MidCap 400 +12.0%, S&P 500 +9.9%, DJIA +8.7%, Nasdaq Composite +7.8%.

WaveFinder breadth (Nov 11):

Primary sentiment: Bearish; 782 bulls vs. 1,146 bears
4% sentiment: Neutral (0 bulls / 0 bears)
40 SMA sentiment: Neutral
Above 20 SMA: 61.75%
Above 40 SMA: 60.36%
9M bulls/bears: 0 / 0; 9M bull follow-through: 0%

Sector Performance

No full ranking of all 11 sectors by price performance is available in the data. Tuesday’s confirmed moves: Financials +0.5%, Consumer Discretionary +0.5%, Information Technology -1.4%. Remaining sectors had no reported performance figure.

WaveFinder ATR (volatility) data, ranked by ATR reading:
1. Consumer Staples: 3.44% (rising, P95)
2. Utilities: 3.16% (falling, P74)
3. Health Care: 2.67% (flat, P63)
4. Consumer Discretionary: 2.50% (rising, P89)
5. Real Estate: 1.92% (rising, P95)
6. Materials: 1.36% (falling, P53)
7. Communication Services: 0.99% (rising, P100)
8. Financials: 0.89% (rising, P95)
9. Industrials: -0.24% (falling, P63)
10. Energy: -1.42% (falling, P16)
11. Technology: -2.01% (flat, P26)

Note that this is a volatility ranking, not a performance ranking.

Key Earnings & Movers

Pre-market:

CoreWeave (CRWV): 56.73, +8.00, +16.42%. Q3 revenue beat; raised FY26 revenue and capex guidance.
NVIDIA (NVDA): 175.70, +6.91, +4.1%. Rebounding after losing nearly 10% following CEO Jensen Huang’s acknowledged affair with an alleged Chinese spy. Closed Tuesday at 168.80 (-5.53%).
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM): 414.91, +18.43, +4.7%. Raised 2026 capex outlook to $60-64 bln from $52-56 bln, about 52% growth from 2025.
Costco (COST): 1,075.35, +9.21, +0.9%. Declared $30/share special cash dividend; reauthorized $4 bln buyback.
Microsoft (MSFT): closed Tuesday at 533.16 (-12.02, -2.20%) on Anthropic’s Claude Whiteboards and Claude Sheets beta launch.
SoftBank Group retreated after its first net loss in nearly two years.
Siemens Energy advanced on record quarterly revenue, raised guidance, and an expanded buyback.

After-hours Tuesday:

BrightView (BV): -18.6% (missed; FY27 revenue guide below consensus)
B&G Foods (BGS): +8.8% (beat; FY26 guidance above consensus)
Amprius (AMPX): -8.4%
Rigetti (RGTI): -7.8%
Grocery Outlet (GO): -7.7%
Resideo (REZI): -2.9%
Firefly Aerospace (FLY): -0.5%
Sonos (SONO): flat (beat; announced buyback)
OpenAI Q3 revenue reached $10 bln, per The Information.

Stock Spotlight

AAON (AAON): The HVAC maker surged after a Q3 beat-and-raise. EPS more than doubled to $0.83 and revenue rose 84% to $707 mln. FY26 revenue growth guidance was lifted to 72-75% from 55-60%. BASX, its data center thermal management unit, drove results: sales rose 218% to $397 mln, including $166 mln in liquid cooling (+256%). BASX orders jumped 116% sequentially. Backlog is $1.85 bln (+40% y/y, -6% sequentially).

Margins were mixed: gross margin fell 110 bps y/y to 26.7% but improved 60 bps sequentially, with FY26 now expected near 26%. Management pushed back on data center concerns, saying less than one-third of BASX backlog is in states facing development pressure, over 80% is with financially strong customers, and projects are permitted rather than speculative. The stock remains well below its $150.18 52-week high.

(Note: CoreWeave is the largest move in the pre-market data, but detailed analysis was only provided for AAON and The Trade Desk. TTD reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $0.33 and revenue of $735.97 mln (-0.5% y/y) but guided Q4 revenue to at least $755 mln, implying about an 11% decline.)

Bond Market & Treasuries

The Treasury market is closed today for Veterans Day. Tuesday’s closing yields:

2-yr: 4.74% (+18 bps)
3-yr: 4.77% (+17 bps)
5-yr: 4.81% (+15 bps)
10-yr: 4.98% (+12 bps)
30-yr: 5.35% (+9 bps)

Both the 2-yr and 10-yr closed at November highs. The 10-yr sits near 5.000%, with its 50-day moving average at 5.041%.

Drivers: Fed Governor Waller backed a 25 bp December hike and left the door open to a larger move. Boston Fed’s Logan called for two 25 bp hikes followed by a pause. The $42 bln 10-yr auction was weak: high yield 5.020% (vs. 4.425% average), bid-to-cover 2.46 (2.53), indirect bid 61.2% (71.4%), direct bid 29.0% (19.7%). This followed a weak 3-yr sale Monday. The Dollar Index rose 0.6% to 102.22; USD/JPY 158.81; EUR/USD 1.1162.

Commodities

Tuesday settlements:

WTI crude: $86.11/bbl, -0.79 (-0.9%). Low of $83.88 on Iran diplomacy hopes, then recovered after Iran’s top security official said no talks are underway. Earlier in the day, WTI was down 19.3% month-to-date at $84.07.
Gold: $4,030.80, -84.20 (-2.1%)
Silver: $51.22, -1.52
Copper: $6.23, -0.12 (-1.9%)
Natural gas: $3.29, +0.07

Recovering metals prices helped London miners this morning.

Overseas Markets

Asia (Wednesday): Nikkei +1.3% (61,248.59); Hang Seng -1.0% (24,315.92); Shanghai Composite +0.5%; Sensex +1.0%; Kospi +2.6%; All Ordinaries +0.3%. AI-related buying lifted Japan and mainland China, while U.S. monetary policy and tech-restriction concerns weighed on Hong Kong. South Korean exports more than doubled in the first 10 days of November, led by semiconductors.

Europe (mostly higher): STOXX 600 +0.4%; DAX +0.8%; FTSE 100 +0.4%; CAC 40 +0.4%; FTSE MIB +0.1%; IBEX 35 flat. Drivers: tech and industrial strength, easing geopolitical tensions, and stabilizing commodity prices.

Economic Data

MBA Mortgage Applications (11/07): +6.2%; prior -1.2%. This is the only U.S. release today.
Germany October CPI: -0.2% m/m (in line); +2.8% y/y (in line; prior +3.3%).
Italy September Industrial Production: +1.2% m/m (expected +0.7%); -0.1% y/y.
Japan: November Reuters Tankan 27 (prior 22); October M2 +1.7% y/y (expected +2.1%).
South Korea: October unemployment 2.5% (prior 2.6%).
Australia: Q3 Home Loans -5.3% q/q (prior -2.0%).

Tuesday’s U.S. data: October CPI +0.4% (consensus 0.3%), core +0.3% (consensus 0.2%); NFIB Optimism 97.8 (consensus 98.0).

Looking Ahead

Today: Treasury market closed; NYSE open for a regular session. Focus on Fed commentary and AI-trade follow-through.
Thursday: Treasury’s $25 bln 30-yr bond auction completes the week’s slate.
December FOMC: a 25 bp hike to 4.00-4.25% is fully priced in, with a 13.6% probability of 50 bp noted earlier. January hike odds are 65%.
Anthropic IPO: 825 million shares at $70-78, targeting a $1.33 trillion valuation, expected before Thanksgiving.
Watch NVIDIA’s board-led investigation and Iran-related oil headlines.