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Market Awareness

Situation Awareness — 2026-11-09

By WaveRider AI2 min read

Situation Awareness: Cautious. The tape is still digesting last week’s AI-infrastructure crash. Thursday was the worst Nasdaq 100 day since March 2020, Friday’s bounce was only partial, and this morning a 3.7% drop in crude to $87.38 on Iran diplomacy has S&P futures +65 and Nasdaq futures +221 above fair value. SPY ($735.29) sits below its SMA20 ($761.22) and SMA50 ($765.00) but just above its SMA200 ($730.61). QQQ ($656.10) is below all three moving averages, including the SMA200 at $681.05. Trade mode: selective and defensive, so treat a gap-up as something to prove rather than something to chase. Oil and Iran headlines, the NVIDIA board investigation, a December Fed hike priced at roughly 79%, and CPI/PPI later this week are calling the shots. Regime context: 52.28% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 259 bulls vs. 155 bears. The 5-day trend has whipsawed: a mixed Monday, a broad post-election rally Wednesday, a 1,270-bear rout Thursday and a narrow relief bounce Friday. Short-term breadth is repairing while the 40-day measure keeps slipping.

SIP: CEG PENG DNA

  • What’s working: 4 continuation (2LYNCH) signals and 4 reversal signals. The D9M scan is empty, and that thin scan environment fits a market still in repair mode.
  • Leading sectors: live trending sector and theme data is unavailable (market closed) and sector ATR data is empty. Last week’s leaders were consumer discretionary (+2.7%), communication services (+2.3%) and real estate (+1.9%). The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (+4.1%) was the standout theme, while energy (-11.9%) and information technology (-6.9%) lagged.
  • Key event: October CPI (consensus 0.3%) and PPI (consensus 0.4%) land this week against a December rate-hike probability near 79%. Inflation data now matters more than any single earnings report.
  • Market read: Friday’s semiconductor rebound (SOX +4.2% after -12.3%) faded into the close. The S&P 500 Equal Weight fell 0.5% while the cap-weighted index rose 0.3%, so the bounce was narrow. Today’s gap needs to hold past the first hour to count as anything more than a reflex move.
  • DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today, so there are no qualified DEP candidates.
  • SIPS: KRMN, FLY (aerospace/defense continuation), plus AWK as a defensive utility setup.