Market Summary

U.S. equity futures point to a higher open on Monday, November 9, with S&P futures +65.00 and Nasdaq futures +221.00 versus fair value as of 08:07 ET. A sharp drop in crude oil is the main support. Oil futures are down $3.45 (-3.7%) to $87.38 per barrel after President Trump said renewed strikes on Iran are “highly unlikely” while negotiations progress. Secretary of State Rubio tempered that optimism by saying Iran’s demands remain unacceptable. The market is also looking to build on Friday’s partial recovery in the AI trade after Thursday’s steep semiconductor selloff.

Last week was difficult. On Friday, the Dow closed at 51,285.94 (-237.33, -0.5%), the Nasdaq at 24,599.81 (+264.43, +1.1%) and the S&P 500 at 7,376.93 (+23.13, +0.3%). For the week, the S&P 500 fell 2.7%, the Nasdaq 3.4% and the DJIA 0.9%. Thursday was the peak of the selling: the Nasdaq plunged 5.5% into correction territory, the S&P fell 4.4%, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index dropped 12.3%. The Nasdaq 100 had its worst day since March 2020, and the S&P 500 its worst since April 2025. The catalyst was concern over restrictions on data center development. The semiconductor index finished the week down 12.2%.

The rotation last week favored consumer-facing and rate-sensitive sectors, helped by lower oil prices, while technology, energy and industrials lagged. Chipmakers are mixed this morning. NVIDIA’s board launched an independent investigation after reports that CEO Jensen Huang was targeted by a foreign intelligence effort. The VIX rose 32% for the week to 25.64.

Market Snapshot

Friday, Nov 6 close:

Dow: 51,285.94 (-237.33, -0.5%)
Nasdaq Composite: 24,599.81 (+264.43, +1.1%)
S&P 500: 7,376.93 (+23.13, +0.3%)

Weekly performance:

DJIA -0.9%
S&P Mid Cap 400 -1.6%
Russell 2000 -2.1%
S&P 500 -2.7%
Nasdaq Composite -3.4%
S&P 500 Equal Weight -1.1%
VIX +32% for the week to 25.64

Pre-market futures (08:07 ET): S&P +65.00 and Nasdaq +221.00 vs fair value. At 06:09 ET they were +45.00 and +50.00.

WaveFinder breadth (Nov 9):

Primary sentiment: Bearish, with 624 bulls versus 1,219 bears.
4% sentiment: Neutral (0 bulls, 0 bears).
40 SMA sentiment: Neutral.
Above 20 SMA: 62%.
Above 40 SMA: 54.15%.
9M bulls/bears: 0/0, with 0% bull follow-through.

Sector Performance

Weekly sector returns from the Weekly Wrap are available for only some sectors. Full ranking of all 11 is not possible from the data provided, so the table below shows reported weekly returns and WaveFinder ATR for all sectors.

Ranked by reported weekly performance:
1. Consumer Discretionary: +2.7%
2. Communication Services: +2.3%
3. Real Estate: +1.9%
4. Industrials: -2.8%
5. Information Technology: -6.9%
6. Energy: -11.9%

Weekly returns were not provided for Financials, Health Care, Consumer Staples, Materials or Utilities.

WaveFinder sector ATR:

Technology: -2.78% (falling, P5)
Consumer Discretionary: 1.53% (rising, P74)
Communication Services: -0.41% (rising, P95)
Financials: -0.40% (rising, P74)
Industrials: -1.50% (falling, P11)
Health Care: 2.20% (flat, P42)
Energy: -2.19% (falling, P0)
Consumer Staples: 2.24% (rising, P68)
Materials: 0.76% (falling, P47)
Utilities: 2.89% (flat, P63)
Real Estate: 1.16% (rising, P89)

Other notes: the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF gained 4.1% for the week, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF fell 5.2%, and the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF fell 3.7%. On Friday, information technology led with +1.3% after a 7.3% drop Thursday.

Key Earnings & Movers

Pre-market, Nov 9:

NVIDIA (NVDA): 177.20, -9.44 (-5.06%). Board formed an independent committee to investigate reports involving CEO Jensen Huang. Board said it has no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised.
Alphabet (GOOG): 291.95, +8.02 (+2.82%). Reports of two new TPU variants, per Bloomberg.
Barrick Mining (B): 41.53, +0.97 (+2.39%). Beat on earnings, missed on revenue, and maintained FY26 gold and copper production guidance.
Airbus announced a share repurchase of up to EUR5 billion. ACS denied takeover speculation involving Hochtief.

Friday, Nov 6 session:

AMD: 449.04, +44.64 (+11.04%)
Cloudflare (NET): 268.75, +24.24 (+9.91%), on accelerating revenue growth and upbeat Q4 guidance
AppLovin (APP): 391.22, +35.12 (+9.86%), extending its post-earnings rally
Lam Research (LRCX): 200.44, +15.24 (+8.23%), after a $25 billion buyback authorization and a $0.33 quarterly dividend
Moderna (MRNA): 254.19, +12.73 (+5.27%), on an earnings beat and raised FY26 revenue outlook
NVIDIA: 186.64, +5.04 (+2.78%)
Microchip (MCHP): 58.35, -6.50 (-10.02%), as in-line guidance disappointed
Monster Beverage (MNST) traded sharply lower on margin pressure.

Stock Spotlight

Cloudflare (NET) closed Friday at 268.75, up 24.24 (+9.91%), after a beat-and-raise Q3. Adjusted EPS rose 40.7% year over year to $0.38. Revenue grew 39.2% to $782.51 million, its fastest growth in nearly four years, and annualized revenue passed $3 billion. Q4 guidance calls for EPS of $0.43 on revenue of $845-846 million, both above expectations, with growth near 38%.

The details were strong. Remaining performance obligations rose 34% to $2.88 billion, and current RPO growth accelerated to 37% from 35%. The company added a record 308 customers spending more than $100,000 annually, for a total of 5,006 (+25%). Dollar-based net retention improved to 122% from 120%. The Workers developer platform passed 10 million active developers, and daily AI agent requests across the network rose more than 1,700% over the past year. Briefing.com noted that the growth extends beyond AI-focused customers to larger enterprises across industries.

Worth noting as a counterpoint, NVIDIA is the biggest pre-market mover at -5.06% on the Huang investigation headline.

Bond Market & Treasuries

Overnight (07:56 ET): 10-year -3/32 at 4.864%. Treasuries are set for a slightly lower start in the belly, with the long end showing some relative strength.

Yield check:

2-yr: unchanged at 4.53%
3-yr: +1 bp to 4.60%
5-yr: +1 bp to 4.66%
10-yr: unchanged at 4.86%
30-yr: unchanged at 5.26%

Last week: The 10-year fell 7 bps and the complex posted a fifth consecutive weekly gain. Friday’s strong October jobs report (payrolls +165,000 vs. 65,000 consensus; unemployment 4.1%; average hourly earnings +0.4%) lifted the probability of a 25 bp December rate hike to nearly 80% per CME FedWatch. San Francisco Fed’s Daly expects additional tightening.

Drivers today:

The U.S. Treasury sells $58 billion of 3-year notes at 13:00 ET.
Expectations for a December Bank of Japan hike were curtailed after Governor Ueda declined to comment on a potential increase.
Trump meets Qatar’s prime minister today in another diplomatic effort on Iran.
The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.4% at 101.88, versus 102.28 on Friday.
Currencies: EUR/USD +0.4% to 1.1188, GBP/USD +0.5% to 1.3415, USD/JPY -0.3% to 158.00, USD/CNH unchanged at 6.6711.

Commodities

WTI Crude: -2.7% to $88.41/bbl per the bond report. Briefing.com cites oil futures down $3.45 (-3.7%) to $87.38. Crude fell about 13% last week.
Gold: +1.2% to $4,124.70/oz
Copper: +1.5% to $6.328/lb
Silver: No data provided.

Overseas Markets

Asia (mixed):

Nikkei: +2.3% (58,775.5, +1,340.70), rebounding from last week’s steep losses
Hang Seng: -0.1% (24,448.95, -32.90)
Shanghai Composite: +0.3%
Sensex: +0.1%
Kospi: -0.8%, with weakness in South Korean battery shares
Australia All Ordinaries: +0.2%

Beijing extended its suspension of additional 24% tariffs on U.S. goods by two months, through January.

Europe (rebounding):

STOXX Europe 600: +0.8%
DAX: +0.9%
FTSE 100: +0.7%
CAC 40: +0.6%
FTSE MIB: +1.9%
IBEX 35: +1.4%

Lower oil prices and easing geopolitical tensions are supporting the region, while investors assess tighter U.S. AI regulation.

Economic Data

Today (U.S.): 10:00 ET September Wholesale Inventories, consensus 0.6%, prior 0.5%. No top-tier U.S. data is due.

Overnight:

China October CPI: 0.0% m/m (expected 0.0%; prior +0.2%), +0.7% y/y (expected +0.8%; prior +0.9%). PPI +5.7% y/y (expected +5.3%; prior +5.0%).
Japan September Coincident Indicator: +0.7% m/m (prior -1.8%). Leading Index 116.4 (expected 116.7; prior 118.0).
Japan October foreign reserves: USD1,179.1 billion.
Australia September Building Approvals: +5.1% m/m (in line) and -0.8% y/y (in line). Private house approvals -5.3% m/m.
Germany September Trade Balance: EUR15.6 billion (expected EUR19.2 billion; prior EUR17.8 billion). Exports +2.0% m/m, imports +4.2% m/m.
Eurozone November Sentix: 2.4 (expected 2.1; prior 2.7).

Context: The October jobs report showed 3-month average payroll growth rising to 137,000 from 79,000. Year-over-year wage growth of 3.1% trails CPI (3.7%) and PCE (3.6%), and the personal savings rate is 3.8%, near a 15-year low.

Looking Ahead

Today: September Wholesale Inventories at 10:00 ET and the $58 billion 3-year note auction at 13:00 ET. Trump meets Qatar’s prime minister on Iran diplomacy.
This week: October CPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) and PPI (consensus 0.4%) could influence Fed expectations, with a December hike nearly 80% priced. The economic calendar is otherwise light.
Earnings: Another round of reports is due, including several key AI-related companies that could shape sentiment after last week’s volatility.
Themes to watch: the NVIDIA investigation, Iran negotiations and oil, data center regulation, and whether WaveFinder breadth (primary sentiment Bearish, 624 bulls vs. 1,219 bears) improves alongside the futures bounce.