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Market Awareness

Situation Awareness — 2026-11-04

By WaveRider AI2 min read

Situation Awareness: Cautious. The tape opens with a political reset and a test of the AI trade. Democrats flipped both the House and Senate. Crude is easing after the President said he has no immediate plans to strike Iran. AMD’s post-earnings pop has fully evaporated. SPY ($754.35) sits below both its SMA20 ($766.95) and SMA50 ($766.81), near the bottom of its 20-day range ($750.36-$779.42). QQQ ($685.28) is barely above its SMA200 ($680.52) with RSI at 34.6. Trade mode: selective and controlled, with smaller size until the open confirms direction. Today’s context is a firm ADP print (86K vs. 75K expected), a narrower trade deficit and lower Treasury yields, with ISM Services at 10:00 ET as the next swing factor. Regime context — 50.77% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 261 bulls vs. 190 bears. Only two sessions of data are available for the trend. The gauge flipped from a bearish 321/419 on Monday to bullish on Tuesday, but 40-SMA breadth slipped 2.8 points and 20-SMA breadth fell 15 points. Participation is thinning even as the headline gauge improves.

SIP: PENG CCXI

  • What’s working: The Continuation (2LYNCH) scan is firing with 11 signals, a decent count. The Reversal scan has 3 signals and Delayed 9M has none. Momentum continuation is the only scan with real depth.
  • Leading sectors: The live Trending Sectors, Trending Themes and Sector ATR feeds are unavailable (market closed). Tuesday’s S&P sector leaders were Information Technology +1.3%, Industrials +1.0% and Communication Services +0.9%. Theme data is unavailable.
  • Key event: Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, which removes election uncertainty and reshapes the fiscal policy outlook.
  • Market read: Tuesday’s rebound was narrow. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% and the Nasdaq 0.8%, but the Equal Weight index fell 0.4%. Semis recovered most of Monday’s damage and the rest of the market sat it out. Today needs broader participation to be trusted.
  • DEP watchlist: No Delayed 9M signals today, so the list is empty.
  • SIPS: TLN, ETN, XMTR