Market Summary

Equity futures point to a mostly higher open on Wednesday, November 4, following the midterm elections, in which Democrats flipped control of both the House and Senate. The result has removed some political uncertainty. President Trump congratulated Democrats and expressed willingness to work with incoming congressional leadership, while noting that he retains veto power. As of 08:00 ET, S&P futures were +59.00 vs. fair value and Nasdaq futures were -23.00. At 06:07 ET, they had been +82.00 and +255.00, so the Nasdaq futures advantage has faded.

Tuesday’s session was mixed. The S&P 500 rose 0.4% to 7,568.99 (+27.52) and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8% to 25,392.40 (+207.65). The DJIA fell 0.4% to 51,786.93 (-197.26). A semiconductor and mega-cap tech rebound drove the gains, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index up 2.6% after Monday’s 3.4% decline. Breadth was weak: the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index fell 0.4%, and only four of the 11 S&P sectors finished higher.

Crude oil is lower after Trump indicated he has no immediate plans to launch military strikes against Iran, easing escalation concerns. AMD surged nearly 10% after hours on its earnings beat, then gave up those gains and now trades near flat. WaveFinder breadth remains bearish, so the rebound has yet to show broad participation.

Market Snapshot

Tuesday close (Nov 3):

S&P 500: 7,568.99, +27.52 (+0.4%)
Nasdaq Composite: 25,392.40, +207.65 (+0.8%)
DJIA: 51,786.93, -197.26 (-0.4%)
Russell 2000: +0.2%
S&P Mid Cap 400: +0.2%
S&P 500 Equal Weighted: -0.4%
PHLX Semiconductor: +2.6%
Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF: +0.9%

Pre-market futures (08:00 ET): S&P +59.00 vs. fair value; Nasdaq -23.00 vs. fair value.

WaveFinder breadth (Nov 4):

Primary sentiment: Bearish, with 610 bulls vs. 1,169 bears
4% sentiment: Neutral (0 bulls, 0 bears)
40 SMA sentiment: Neutral
Above 20 SMA: 39%
Above 40 SMA: 58.11%
9M bulls/bears: 0/0; 9M bull follow-through: 0%

Sector Performance

Tuesday S&P 500 sector moves. Briefing reported only the sectors below. The remaining sectors are listed as not reported, and the four gaining sectors were information technology, industrials, communication services and real estate.

1. Information Technology: +1.3%
2. Industrials: +1.0%
3. Communication Services: +0.9%
4. Real Estate: +0.2%
5. Energy: -0.8%
6. Consumer Staples: -1.8%
7. Materials: -1.9%

Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Health Care, Utilities: specific figures not reported (all finished lower, since only four sectors advanced)

WaveFinder sector ATR (volatility):

Utilities: 3.22% (rising, P84)
Materials: 2.43% (rising, P89)
Health Care: 2.37% (flat, P58)
Consumer Staples: 2.06% (rising, P68)
Consumer Discretionary: 1.28% (rising, P84)
Industrials: 0.88% (rising, P100)
Real Estate: 0.37% (rising, P100)
Energy: 0.14% (falling, P0)
Financials: -0.66% (rising, P89)
Communication Services: -1.48% (rising, P58)
Technology: -2.26% (falling, P5)

Technology volatility is falling at a low percentile (P5), while Industrials and Real Estate sit at P100.

Key Earnings & Movers

Pre-market (Nov 4):

AMD (482.29, -1.61, -0.33%): Beat Q3 EPS and revenue estimates, with record Data Center revenue and Q4 revenue guidance above consensus. Shares jumped nearly 10% after hours, then gave up the gains.
Amgen (479.00, +17.74, +3.85%): Beat Q3 estimates and raised its FY26 EPS outlook to a range in line with consensus.
McDonald’s (267.00, +3.96, +1.51%): Beat on EPS but missed on revenue. Global comparable sales rose, while U.S. comparable sales declined.
Palantir (167.11, -8.29, -4.73%): Announced a deployment of Foundry and AIP across Changshin’s footwear operations.

Tuesday regular session:

NVIDIA (206.69, +4.63, +2.29%): Mega-cap semiconductor standout.
GE Vernova (918.20, +55.95, +6.49%): Strength in power infrastructure.
Bloom Energy (214.01, +17.76, +9.05%): AI infrastructure demand theme.
Meta (621.03, +14.30, +2.36%): Reportedly plans a bond sale of at least $20 billion, per the WSJ.
Apple (331.90, -6.42, -1.90%): Beat expectations, but concerns about slowing Services growth, rising memory costs and added AI spending weighed on the stock.
Palantir (175.40, -2.94, -1.65%): Strong earnings and guidance, but a sharp slowdown in bookings growth.
Sysco (74.11, -7.63, -9.33%) and ADM (70.60, -5.17, -6.82%): Weaker-than-expected revenue.
Keurig Dr Pepper (34.74, -2.08, -5.65%): Beat estimates, but concerns about the U.S. coffee recovery weighed.
Fabrinet (FN): Rallied on a Q1 beat and strong Q2 guidance.
DuPont (DD): Traded higher on a beat-and-raise quarter.

Stock Spotlight

AMD is the most significant mover. The company beat Q3 earnings and revenue estimates, reported record Data Center revenue, and guided Q4 revenue above consensus. It closed Tuesday at 483.90 (+17.06, +3.65%) ahead of the report, then surged nearly 10% after hours. By pre-market it was at 482.29 (-0.33%), having surrendered the gain. The result was framed as an important test for the AI trade, with investors focused on the Q4 outlook, Data Center growth, supply availability and the ramp of the Helios AI infrastructure platform. A fade from a near-10% spike suggests the market had priced in much of the good news.

Fabrinet (FN) is also worth noting, as it illustrates the AI infrastructure demand theme. Q1 adjusted EPS was $4.34, and revenue rose 51% yr/yr to $1.47 bln, the seventh straight quarter of accelerating growth. Data center revenue rose 78% yr/yr to $777 mln. Q2 guidance of $4.77-$4.92 EPS and $1.60-$1.65 bln revenue sits well above consensus. Annual revenue capacity is set to rise from about $5.8 bln to $10 bln by January. Offsetting factors include non-GAAP gross margin slipping 20 bps to 12.1%, a $137 mln free cash outflow, and tight component availability.

Bond Market & Treasuries

Treasuries are set for a modestly higher start. The 10-year is +5/32 at a 4.917% yield. Overnight action saw a push to highs as polls closed, followed by a retreat that reversed most of the gains, then a bounce off the lows.

Yield check (bps change):

2-yr: 4.59% (-3 bps)
3-yr: 4.65% (-3 bps)
5-yr: 4.71% (-3 bps)
10-yr: 4.92% (-3 bps)
30-yr: 5.30% (-2 bps)

On Tuesday, the 10-year closed at 4.952% (-11/32) as Treasuries gave back some of Monday’s rally. Strong September data, including Factory Orders at 1.8% (consensus 1.2%) and JOLTS job openings rising to 7.523 million from 7.190 million, added pressure.

Key drivers:

The Treasury’s quarterly refunding statement is due at 8:30 ET. No big surprises are expected, as the borrowing estimate for the quarter decreased by just $10 bln.
ECB policymaker Nagel said a rate hike will likely be needed in December.
The Times shadow MPC voted unanimously that the Bank of England must raise rates.
The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.6% at 101.30. USD/JPY is 158.28 and EUR/USD is 1.1265.

Commodities

WTI crude: $94.93/bbl, -1.2% (below $95). Tuesday’s settle was $96.16 (-$0.35, -0.4%). Oil is lower on Trump’s comments that he has no immediate plans to strike Iran.
Gold: $4,051.10/ozt, +2.8%
Copper: $6.44/lb, +0.6%
Silver: Not reported in the provided data.

Currencies: EUR/USD +0.7% to 1.1265; GBP/USD +0.6% to 1.3496; USD/CNH +0.1% to 6.6712; USD/JPY -0.2% to 158.28.

Overseas Markets

Asia (mixed):

Japan’s Nikkei: -1.4% (62,188.63, -893.20), pressured by tech weakness amid U.S. election and AI outlook uncertainty
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng: +1.7% (23,919.5, +393.50)
China’s Shanghai Composite: +2.2%, after the PBOC announced additional support for equity purchases
India’s Sensex: +0.5%
South Korea’s Kospi: +0.6%, with semiconductor and financial shares offsetting weakness elsewhere
Australia’s All Ordinaries: -0.6%

Europe (broadly higher, supported by lower bond yields; financials strong):

STOXX Europe 600: +1.5%
Germany’s DAX: +1.5%
U.K.’s FTSE 100: +1.2%
France’s CAC 40: +1.6%
Italy’s FTSE MIB: +2.3%
Spain’s IBEX 35: +2.9%

Corporate news: Heidelberg Materials raised its cost-efficiency targets, and Continental increased its margin and cash flow outlook. The Bank of England announces its policy decision Thursday.

Economic Data

Overnight international releases:

China RatingDog Services PMI: 50.8 (expected 51.7; prior 51.6)
Hong Kong S&P Global PMI: 50.2 (prior 49.2)
India Services PMI: 55.8 (expected 56.2; prior 55.2); Composite 56.2 (expected 56.7)
Australia Services PMI: 48.5 (expected 47.8; prior 51.9); Composite 48.2
New Zealand Q3 unemployment: 5.7% (expected 5.5%); employment change -0.1% q/q (expected +0.4%)
Eurozone October CPI: +4.0% yr/yr (in line; prior +3.8%); +0.4% m/m; core +2.5% yr/yr (in line)
Eurozone Services PMI: 51.4 (expected 51.7; prior 53.0); Composite 51.7
Germany Services PMI: 52.5 (expected 51.7); Composite 53.4
France Services PMI: 46.2 (expected 48.4; prior 51.2); Composite 46.6, a notable miss
Italy Services PMI: 52.0; Spain Services PMI: 57.2, with unemployment change +43.1K (expected +18.7K)
U.K. Services PMI: 52.8 (expected 53.1); Composite 52.9

U.S.: The MBA Mortgage Index was -1.2% (prior 3.4%). Most services PMIs point to continued growth, but at a slower pace.

Looking Ahead

Today (Nov 4), ET:

8:15: October ADP Employment Change (consensus 75K; prior 90K)
8:30: September Trade Balance (consensus -$108.4B; prior -$105.6B), plus the Treasury quarterly refunding announcement
9:45: Final October S&P Global U.S. Services PMI (prior 57.9)
10:00: October ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (consensus 54.8; prior 54.9)
10:30: EIA crude oil inventories (prior -1.892M)

Themes to watch:

Whether the AI and semiconductor rebound broadens, given weak breadth and bearish WaveFinder readings
Oil direction on U.S.-Iran developments
Congressional shift and its implications for fiscal policy
Continued earnings follow-through on Wednesday’s calendar
The Bank of England decision Thursday, with the ECB and BoE rate-hike signals in focus