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Market Awareness

Situation Awareness — 2026-11-03

By WaveRider AI2 min read

Situation Awareness: Cautious. The tape enters Election Day caught between an oversold mega-cap complex and a resilient broad market — SPY sits at $752.10, pinned to the bottom of its 20-day range ($750.36–$779.42) and well below its SMA20 ($767.98) and SMA50 ($766.99) but holding above the SMA200 ($729.46), with RSI at a washed-out 38.0. QQQ is the real stress point at $681.09, barely clinging to its SMA200 ($680.12) with RSI 32.1 near oversold. IWM at $279.14 is the relative winner, perched above its SMA20 ($277.09) and SMA200 ($278.86). Trade mode: selective and watchful — let the midterm results and the 10:00 ET data clear before committing size. Today’s calling cards are the midterm elections tonight, a limited U.S.-Iran military exchange that is now pushing oil lower, and JOLTS/Factory Orders at 10 AM. Regime context — 53.59% of stocks trade above their 40-day SMA, and the 4% Bull/Bear gauge shows 321 bulls vs. 419 bears. The 5-day trend is choppy and two-sided: breadth has expanded sharply (40 SMA +4.0pp, 20 SMA +16.0pp day-over-day) even as the cap-weighted indices stall, confirming the rotation out of mega-cap tech into the broad tape.

SIP: NXH PBK TWST MBOT

  • What’s working: the Continuation/2LYNCH scan is rich with 13 signals — healthy breadth beneath a weak index surface. Reversal and Delayed 9M scans are empty, so there are no fresh episodic-pivot or bounce setups today.
  • Market closed — no live Trending Sectors/Themes or ATR data. Leaning on the signal footprint, leadership clusters in AEROSPACE/DEFENSE (TDG +5.8%), BUILDING (DHI +4.8%), and FINANCE (BR +3.0%, AXP +2.8%) — all cyclical, non-tech names.
  • Key event: midterm elections tonight will reshape fiscal, tax, and regulatory expectations; a divided Congress caps policy swings, unified control opens the door to legislative action.
  • Market read: Monday’s reversal — early +1% rally erased by a -2.7% tech/-3.4% semi collapse into the close — tells you AI de-risking still owns the headline tape while the equal-weight (+0.8%) quietly outperformed by 1.3pp.
  • DEP watchlist: no Delayed 9M signals today — nothing to carry.
  • SIPS: TDG, DHI, AXP — the cleanest cyclical continuation swings.